Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Fateh 0-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Before kick-off the model made it 17% Al-Fateh, 22% draw, 61% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 5.88, 4.55 and 1.64.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Ahli Jeddah at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. ŠemperG
- 22Abdul Rahman Al KhaibariD
- 8M. LixandruD
- 17M. SaâdaneD
- 3K. BoatengD
- 78Abdulaziz Al SuwailemD
- 11M. BatnaM
- 6Ali Al HassanM
- 28Z. YoussoufM
- 10L. HaraslínM
- 9W. KangaF
- 25M. Al SahihiM
- 88Othman Al-OthmaM
- 7Fahad Al ZubaidiF
- 18Abdulaziz Al FawazM
- 94Waleed Al AnziG
- 80Faisal Al AbdulwahedM
- 49Saad Al SharfaF
- 87Sattam Al TumbuktiD
- 19R. KelderD
- 1Abdulrahman Al SanbiG
- 15Saeed BaattiaD
- 28M. DemiralD
- 5Mohammed BakorD
- 31Saad YaslamD
- 6V. Atangana EdoaM
- 30Ziyad Al JohaniM
- 7TrincãoM
- 20Matheus GonçalvesM
- 13GalenoM
- 17I. ToneyF
- 9Feras Al BrikanF
- 47Waheb SalehF
- 62Abdullah AbdoG
- 11Meshal Al MutairiF
- 19A. BondarenkoM
- 46Rayane HamidouD
- 21Abdullah RadifF
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 29Mohammed YousefD
Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Fateh
All competitions we cover
- L2-4away to NEOM13 September 2026
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Ittihad29 August 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pro League
- W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Fateh did not win any of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Saudi Arabia Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 6 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 6 May 2026Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 26 December 2025Al-Fateh 2–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 7 February 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 27 August 2024Al-Fateh 1–0 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 2 March 2024Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 2 September 2023Al-Fateh 5–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Fateh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney132
- Trincão63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4–0 at Al-Fateh. The model had made a win for Al-Ahli Jeddah its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Francisco Trincão 31' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Francisco Trincão 50' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Ivan Toney 60' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Ziyad Al-Johani 89' for Al-Ahli Jeddah. On expected goals it finished 0.45–2.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Fateh a 40.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.9% after a win, 38.5% after a draw, 43.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.4%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
For Al-Ahli Jeddah the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 67.2% going in: 70.2% after a win, 63.7% after a draw, 59.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.2%, 3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Al-Fateh v Al-Ahli Jeddah has moved
First published on 25 Sep at 21% / 25% / 54% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 17% / 22% / 61%: the biggest move is Al-Ahli Jeddah's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Al-Fateh win17%▼ −4
- Draw22%▼ −3
- Al-Ahli Jeddah win61%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.