Al-Fateh
vs
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Fateh 0–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah
The model makes it 21% Al-Fateh, 25% draw, 54% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 4.76, 4.00 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Al-Fateh 0.95, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.26.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Fateh
- L2-4away to NEOM13 September 2026
- L1-2Al Diriyah9 September 2026
- D0-0away to Al Taawon5 September 2026
- D0-0Al-Ittihad29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Faisaly FC26 August 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- W3-1Al-Hazm11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Qadisiyah FC8 September 2026
- W5-0Al Riyadh4 September 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Hilal1 September 2026
- L1-3away to Al Kholood29 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Fateh did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Ahli Jeddah had three goals or more.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Al-Fateh | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 6 May 2026Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 26 December 2025Al-Fateh 2–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 7 February 2025Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–0 Al-FatehPro League
- 27 August 2024Al-Fateh 1–0 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
- 2 March 2024Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–1 Al-FatehPro League
- 2 September 2023Al-Fateh 5–1 Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
Leading scorers: Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Fateh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- I. Toney10 goals1 assists
- Trincão3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Fateh carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.89 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.95 goals for Al-Fateh and 2.26 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Fateh rate 0.56 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Ahli Jeddah rate 1.11 and 1.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Fateh a 0% chance of the title and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al-Fateh against 2.26 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Fateh's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/1.04 for Al-Ahli Jeddah.