Lillestrom vs Viking Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 1-2 Viking.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Lillestrom, 26% draw, 50% Viking — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Viking at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lillestrom vs Viking
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Pontus DahlbergG
- 2Lars RangerD
- 4Espen Bjørnsen GarnåsD
- 28Ruben GabrielsenD
- 11Frederik ElkærD
- 29Ylldren IbrahimajM
- 26Yaw PaintsilM
- 8Markus KarlsbakkM
- 14Gustav Kjolstad NyheimM
- 20Felix VáM
- 10Thomas Lehne OlsenF
- 18Kevin Martin KrygardM
- 77Fredrik GulbrandsenF
- 15Gustav NordhF
- 9Kparobo ArierhiF
- 6Harald WoxenM
- 1Stephan HagerupG
- 3Sturla OttesenD
- 5Sander Moen FossD
- 47Stian KristiansenD
- 30Ľubomír BelkoG
- 5Henrik HeggheimD
- 6Gianni StensnessD
- 21Anders BaertelsenD
- 28Kristoffer HaugenD
- 8Joe BellM
- 10Zlatko TripićM
- 7Kristoffer AskildsenM
- 26Simen Kvia-EgeskogM
- 17Edvin AustbøM
- 20Peter ChristiansenF
- 18Sondre Flem BjørsholD
- 23Niklas Kemp FuglestadF
- 16Ruben AlteM
- 24Vetle AuklendD
- 3Viljar VevatneD
- 1Arild ØstbøG
- 2Herman Johan HaugenD
- 29Tobias MoiM
- 15Ola VistedM
Form going into Lillestrom vs Viking
Lillestrom
- W2-1KFUM Oslo18 July 2026
Viking
- W2-1Sandefjord18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lillestrom | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 32 |
| 2 | Viking | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 51 | 20 | +31 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Viking
- 22 July 2026Lillestrom 1–2 VikingEliteserien
- 29 September 2024Lillestrom 1–4 VikingEliteserien
- 16 May 2024Viking 1–4 LillestromEliteserien
- 13 August 2023Lillestrom 1–3 VikingEliteserien
- 15 April 2023Viking 2–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 26 February 2023Viking 2–2 LillestromFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Viking
Lillestrom
- Vá5 goals5 assists
Viking
- P. Christiansen10 goals6 assists
- S. Kvia-Egeskog8 goals2 assists
- Z. Tripić6 goals18 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.