22 July 2026, 18:00 UTC

Vardar Skopje vs Riga UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Toše Proeski Arena, Skopje
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Vardar Skopje 2-3 Riga.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Vardar Skopje, 43% draw, 35% Riga — fair odds of 4.55, 2.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Riga v Vardar Skopje, 28 Jul →

Riga went through 8–4 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts the draw at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mislav Matić
15'
20'
Baba Musah
21'
Orlando Galo
⚽D. Castaneda
28'
35'
⚽O. Galoassist: R. Jurkovskis
39'
⚽Iago Siqueiraassist: O. Galo
43'
Raivis Jurkovskis
52'
Salah Oulad M'Hand
57'
🔁S. Oulad M'Handout: Caio Ferreira
🔁Miguel Piresout: G. Zakaric
59'
🔁B. Nikolovout: N. Bosancic
59'
⚽G. Rodriguesassist: G. Zakaric
66'
67'
🔁M. Badamosiout: Reginaldo Ramires
67'
🔁R. Aouaniout: Paulo Eduardo
81'
⚽Iago Siqueiraassist: A. Salazar
87'
🔁O. Galoout: K. Wassom
Filip Najdovski
90+1'

Line-ups

Vardar Skopje 4-3-3
  • 95Davor TaleskiG
  • 21Georgije JankulovD
  • 5Filip NajdovskiD
  • 4Mislav MatićD
  • 3Mihail ManevskiD
  • 8Boban NikolovM
  • 6David BabunskiM
  • 32Diego CastañedaM
  • 71Miguel PiresM
  • 9Azer OmeragikjF
  • 7Gerson RodriguesF
Substitutes
  • 88Nemanja BosančićM
  • 10Goran ZakarićF
  • 1Daniel DikovskiG
  • 18Nenad MiskovskiD
  • 27Filip CvetkovskiD
  • 22Dimitar TodorovskiM
  • 23Filip DuranskiM
  • 34Ian PuleioM
  • 17Ediz SpahiuF
Coach: Cristian Fabbiani
Riga 3-5-2
  • 91Frenks OrolsG
  • 13Raivis JurkovskisD
  • 21Baba MusahD
  • 34Antonijs ČernomordijsD
  • 4Orlando GaloM
  • 18Salah Oulad M'HandM
  • 40Ahmed AnkrahM
  • 8Iago Siqueira AugustoM
  • 17Andrés SalazarD
  • 19Muhammed BadamosiF
  • 7Raki AouaniM
Substitutes
  • 99Caio FerreiraF
  • 33PauloD
  • 10Reginaldo RamiresF
  • 5Karl Gameni WassomD
  • 31Athanasios PapadoudisG
  • 44Marcis KazainisG
  • 3AbnerD
  • 23Maksims TonisevsD
  • 11Brian PeñaM
Coach: Adrian Gula

The result against the call

Riga won 3–2 at Vardar Skopje. The model had leaned towards a draw at 43% and given a win for Riga 35%. The goals: D. Castaneda 28' for Vardar Skopje, O. Galo 35' for Riga, Iago Siqueira 39' for Riga, G. Rodrigues 66' for Vardar Skopje, Iago Siqueira 81' for Riga.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.