Lazio vs AC Milan Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Lazio 2-2 AC Milan.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Lazio, 29% draw, 32% AC Milan — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lazio at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lazio vs AC Milan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35Christos MandasG
- 15Romano Floriani MussoliniD
- 37Josip ŠutaloD
- 25Oliver ProvstgaardD
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 16Davide FrattesiM
- 21Reda BelahyaneM
- 24Kenneth TaylorM
- 22Matteo CancellieriF
- 14Tijjani NoslinF
- 10Mattia ZaccagniF
- 11Gustav IsaksenF
- 9Andrea PinamontiF
- 80Albert GuðmundssonF
- 29Manuel LazzariM
- 2Diogo LeiteD
- 47Davide RenzettiG
- 40Edoardo MottaG
- 33Ricardo BordonD
- 23Alfonso PedrazaD
- 16Mike MaignanG
- 34Mario GilaD
- 5Koni De WinterD
- 31Strahinja PavlovićD
- 21Samuel ChukwuezeM
- 14Luka ModrićM
- 12Adrien RabiotM
- 2Pervis EstupiñánM
- 8Ruben Loftus-CheekF
- 70Alphadjo CissèF
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 22Diego MoreiraF
- 80Yunus MusahM
- 11Christian PulišićM
- 20Omari HutchinsonF
- 73Francesco CamardaF
- 96Lorenzo TorrianiG
- 1Pietro TerraccianoG
- 13Sankhoun DiawaraD
- 42Filippo TerraccianoD
Form going into Lazio vs AC Milan
Lazio
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Bologna24 August 2026
AC Milan
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
- W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 25 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lazio vs AC Milan
- 15 March 2026Lazio 1–0 AC MilanSerie A
- 4 December 2025Lazio 1–0 AC MilanCoppa Italia
- 29 November 2025AC Milan 1–0 LazioSerie A
- 2 March 2025AC Milan 1–2 LazioSerie A
- 31 August 2024Lazio 2–2 AC MilanSerie A
Leading scorers: Lazio and AC Milan
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- T. Noslin42
- G. Isaksen31
AC Milan
GoalsAssists
- A. Rabiot43
- A. Cissè40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lazio and AC Milan drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lazio at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Cancellieri 10' for Lazio, T. Noslin 39' for Lazio, D. Moreira 65' for AC Milan, D. Moreira 67' for AC Milan. On expected goals it finished 2.05–1.09.