Lazio
vs
AC Milan
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Lazio 2-2 AC Milan.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lazio, 28% draw, 31% AC Milan — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lazio 1.63, AC Milan 1.25.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Lazio vs AC Milan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lazio at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lazio vs AC Milan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35Christos MandasG
- 15Romano Floriani MussoliniD
- 37Josip ŠutaloD
- 25Oliver ProvstgaardD
- 17Nuno TavaresD
- 16Davide FrattesiM
- 21Reda BelahyaneM
- 24Kenneth TaylorM
- 22Matteo CancellieriF
- 14Tijjani NoslinF
- 10Mattia ZaccagniF
- 11Gustav IsaksenF
- 9Andrea PinamontiF
- 80Albert GuðmundssonF
- 29Manuel LazzariM
- 2Diogo LeiteD
- 47Davide RenzettiG
- 40Edoardo MottaG
- 33Ricardo BordonD
- 23Alfonso PedrazaD
- 16Mike MaignanG
- 34Mario GilaD
- 5Koni De WinterD
- 31Strahinja PavlovićD
- 21Samuel ChukwuezeM
- 14Luka ModrićM
- 12Adrien RabiotM
- 2Pervis EstupiñánM
- 8Ruben Loftus-CheekF
- 70Alphadjo CissèF
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 22Diego MoreiraF
- 80Yunus MusahM
- 11Christian PulišićM
- 20Omari HutchinsonF
- 73Francesco CamardaF
- 96Lorenzo TorrianiG
- 1Pietro TerraccianoG
- 13Sankhoun DiawaraD
- 42Filippo TerraccianoD
Form going into Lazio vs AC Milan
Lazio
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Bologna24 August 2026
AC Milan
- D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
- W2-0Venezia28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Torino23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lazio | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lazio vs AC Milan
- 12 September 2026Lazio 2–2 AC MilanSerie A
- 15 March 2026Lazio 1–0 AC MilanSerie A
- 4 December 2025Lazio 1–0 AC MilanCoppa Italia
- 29 November 2025AC Milan 1–0 LazioSerie A
- 2 March 2025AC Milan 1–2 LazioSerie A
- 31 August 2024Lazio 2–2 AC MilanSerie A
Leading scorers: Lazio and AC Milan
Lazio
- D. Frattesi3 goals
AC Milan
- A. Cissè2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.63 goals for Lazio and 1.25 for AC Milan; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: M. Cancellieri 10' (Lazio), T. Noslin 39' (Lazio), D. Moreira 65' (AC Milan), D. Moreira 67' (AC Milan).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lazio the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lazio against 1.25 for AC Milan. Lazio's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.99 for AC Milan.