Lazio
vs
Parma
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Lazio 1–0 Parma
The model makes it 48% Lazio, 31% draw, 21% Parma — fair odds of 2.08, 3.23 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Lazio 1.32, Parma 0.68.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Lazio: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Lazio are 2nd on 16 points from 6 games; Parma are 18th on 4 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Monza.
- Parma have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Inter.
- Last 6 meetings: Lazio 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Lazio 1–1 Parma.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lazio vs Parma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lazio at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lazio vs Parma
Lazio
- W3-1Monza11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia19 September 2026
- D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
Parma
- L0-3away to Inter10 October 2026
- W2-1Genoa20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Como14 September 2026
- D1-1Monza6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026
What these results say
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Parma conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Parma failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lazio
Chance to finish in the top four · 17% today
Parma
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 36% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lazio vs Parma
Lazio and Parma have met 6 times in the records we hold, Lazio has won 3 of them to Parma's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Lazio on 4 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Parma | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 4 Apr 2026
Serie ALazio 1–1 Parma - 13 Dec 2025
Serie AParma 0–1 Lazio - 28 Apr 2025
Serie ALazio 2–2 Parma - 1 Dec 2024
Serie AParma 3–1 Lazio - 12 May 2021
Serie ALazio 1–0 Parma - 21 Jan 2021
Coppa ItaliaLazio 2–1 Parma
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Lazio and Parma
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- D. Frattesi30
- T. Noslin22
Parma
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lazio carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.71 for Parma. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Lazio and 0.68 for Parma. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lazio rate 1.01 in attack and 0.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Parma rate 0.68 and 0.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lazio a 1% chance of the title and Parma 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lazio the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Lazio against 0.68 for Parma. Lazio's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/0.94 for Parma.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lazio at home · Parma away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LazioParma
Lazio are 2nd after 6 Serie A matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Parma are 17th after 6 (between 15th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Lazio 6, Parma 6.
Lazio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Parma have let in 0 there.
Parma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Lazio have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lazio
- at Sassuolo27 Oct · Serie Awin 38%
- vs Cagliari1 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at Napoli8 Nov · Serie Awin 24%
- vs Lecce21 Nov · Serie Awin 52%
Parma
- vs Udinese28 Oct · Serie Awin 30%
- at Atalanta2 Nov · Serie Awin 18%
- vs Bologna7 Nov · Serie Awin 29%
- vs AS Roma21 Nov · Serie Awin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.