Atlante FC
vs
Atletico San Luis
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Atlante FC 2–1 Atletico San Luis
The model makes it 45% Atlante FC, 26% draw, 29% Atletico San Luis — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atlante FC 1.70, Atletico San Luis 1.28.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Atlante FC are 16th on 11 points from 11 games; Atletico San Luis are 15th on 12 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- Atlante FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Club Queretaro.
- Atletico San Luis have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Santos Laguna.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico San Luis 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 March 2019, ended Atletico San Luis 0–0 Atlante FC.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlante FC at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis
Atlante FC
- L0-2away to Club Queretaro10 October 2026
- W4-2Monterrey26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla19 September 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas6 September 2026
Atletico San Luis
- L1-2Santos Laguna11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Pumas UNAM27 September 2026
- W3-1Necaxa19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Leon15 September 2026
- L0-3Guadalajara Chivas5 September 2026
What these results say
- Atlante FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico San Luis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico San Luis had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atlante FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 38% today
Atletico San Luis
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis
Atlante FC and Atletico San Luis have met 6 times in the records we hold, Atletico San Luis has won 3 of them to Atlante FC's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Atletico San Luis on 9 Mar 2019.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| Atletico San Luis | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 9 Mar 2019
Liga de Expansión MXAtletico San Luis 0–0 Atlante FC - 26 Nov 2018
Liga de Expansión MXAtlante FC 2–0 Atletico San Luis - 23 Nov 2018
Liga de Expansión MXAtletico San Luis 3–0 Atlante FC - 6 Oct 2018
Liga de Expansión MXAtlante FC 2–3 Atletico San Luis - 27 Jan 2018
Liga de Expansión MXAtlante FC 3–1 Atletico San Luis - 12 Aug 2017
Liga de Expansión MXAtletico San Luis 2–0 Atlante FC
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC | 0.66 | 1.37 |
| Atletico San Luis | 0.73 | 1.49 |
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlante FC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.49 for Atletico San Luis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Atlante FC and 1.28 for Atletico San Luis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlante FC rate 0.66 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico San Luis rate 0.73 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Atletico San Luis, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlante FC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Atlante FC against 1.28 for Atletico San Luis. Atlante FC's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.49 for Atletico San Luis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atlante FC at home · Atletico San Luis away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Atlante FCAtletico San Luis
Atlante FC are 15th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 9th and 18th so far); Atletico San Luis are 15th after 11 (between 12th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Atlante FC 11, Atletico San Luis 11.
Atlante FC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Atletico San Luis have let in 5 there.
Atletico San Luis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Atlante FC have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Atlante FC
- at Guadalajara Chivas1 Nov · Liga MXwin 17%
- vs Santos Laguna7 Nov · Liga MXwin 45%
- at Club Tijuana21 Nov · Liga MXwin 24%
Atletico San Luis
- vs Atlas31 Oct · Liga MXwin 43%
- vs FC Juarez7 Nov · Liga MXwin 55%
- at Puebla21 Nov · Liga MXwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.