Tigres UANL vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Tigres UANL 1-0 Puebla.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Tigres UANL, 29% draw, 24% Puebla — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigres UANL at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tigres UANL vs Puebla
Line-ups
- 1N. GuzmánG
- 30D. SánchezD
- 28JoaquimD
- 33R. GuerreroD
- 19M. LaínezD
- 15A. FrancoM
- 8F. GorriaránM
- 77O. HerreraM
- 6J. VigónM
- 11J. BrunettaM
- 22G. MartínezF
- 25F. RodríguezG
- 32V. LoroñaD
- 184I. AcevesD
- 26F. OrdóñezD
- 5C. AraújoM
- 16D. LainezM
- 29J. ContrerasF
- 21R. MonrealF
- 205A. de María y CamposF
- 28R. GutiérrezG
- 20J. PachucaD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 7F. MonárrezD
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 21S. SanabriaM
- 27B. GarnicaM
- 10M. TomásM
- 22C. BaltazarM
- 19I. Maestro PuchF
- 15Ó. VillaD
- 2Á. LeyvaD
- 25H. JuradoF
- 16A. RamírezM
- 8O. MorenoF
- 3A. HerreraM
- 12I. MorenoM
- 33J. RodríguezG
- 34Lucas CamiloM
Form going into Tigres UANL vs Puebla
Tigres UANL
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to FC Juarez19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Monterrey13 September 2026
- D1-1Necaxa6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Santos Laguna30 August 2026
- W2-0Atlante FC22 August 2026
Puebla
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Atlante FC19 September 2026
- L0-1Toluca16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna23 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Tigres UANL had two goals or fewer.
- Tigres UANL failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Puebla had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tigres UANL vs Puebla
- 5 March 2026Puebla 3–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 9 August 2025Tigres UANL 7–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 5 April 2025Puebla 0–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 5 October 2024Tigres UANL 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 1 August 2024Tigres UANL 2–1 PueblaLeagues Cup
Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Puebla
Tigres UANL
GoalsAssists
- J. Brunetta84
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tigres UANL beat Puebla 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Tigres UANL at 47%. The goal: Juan Brunetta (penalty) 54' for Tigres UANL.
How the call on Tigres UANL v Puebla has moved
First published on 13 Sep at 41% / 31% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 29% / 24%: the biggest move is Tigres UANL's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Tigres UANL win47%▲ +6
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Puebla win24%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.