8 September 2026, 16:45 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Eredivisie prediction & result

Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
Full time2 – 2

Final score: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% NEC Nijmegen, 30% draw, 31% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NEC Nijmegen at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NEC Nijmegen0%Draw4%Excelsior96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jamiro Monteiro
4'
⚽Adam Tahauiassist: Willum Thor Willumsson
10'
43'
⚽David Gardenassist: Irakli Yegoian
🔁Jamiro Monteiroout: Perr Schuurs
45'
🔁Bram Nuytinckout: Philippe Sandler
45'
45'
🔁Simon Janssenout: Kasey Bos
52'
Lennard Hartjes
🔁Dennis Geigerout: Noe Lebreton
63'
🔁Isak Hansen Aaröenout: Kevin Kers
63'
67'
🔁David Gardenout: Nesto groen
67'
🔁Ágúst Orri Thorsteinssonout: Aymen sliti
70'
Rick Meissen
71'
🔁Eric da Silva Moreiraout: Valentin Sulzbacher
73'
⚽Valentin Sulzbacherassist: Aymen sliti
81'
🔁Ilano Silva Timasout: Alireza Jahanbakhsh
🔁Gabriel·Brasout: Clement Bischoff
87'
⚽Noe Lebretonassist: Perr Schuurs
90+2'
90+5'
Valentin Sulzbacher

Match stats — NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior

69%Possession31%
11Shots14
3On target5
2Corners4

Line-ups

NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 73Gabriel BrásD
  • 17B. NuytinckD
  • 21T. StormD
  • 19Adam TahauiM
  • 35Jamiro MonteiroM
  • 18D. GeigerM
  • 77A. ThomasM
  • 11W. WillumssonM
  • 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
  • 10D. TadićF
Substitutes
  • 14K. SierhuisF
  • 38Joep GenesteG
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 9T. CheryM
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
  • 34Kevin KersF
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 99Clement BischoffF
  • 3P. SandlerD
Coach: Dick Schreuder
Excelsior 3-4-3
  • 1S. van GasselG
  • 3R. MeissenD
  • 4C. WidellD
  • 14J. PlugD
  • 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraM
  • 8I. YegoianM
  • 20L. HartjesM
  • 15S. JanssenM
  • 21I. Silva TimasF
  • 19D. GardenF
  • 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
Substitutes
  • 12K. BosF
  • 24Giulliano CairoM
  • 9Mario DomínguezF
  • 28N. GroenF
  • 11A. JahanbakhshF
  • 23Y. FineyM
  • 7A. SlitiF
  • 18V. SulzbacherM
  • 22O. TurayD
Coach: R. den Uil

Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen

  • L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to PEC Zwolle29 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Willem II15 August 2026

Excelsior

  • W3-0away to Willem II5 September 2026
  • W2-1Sparta Rotterdam29 August 2026
  • L1-2PSV Eindhoven15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10NEC Nijmegen62131112-17
6Excelsior6312137+610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior

  • 8 September 2026NEC Nijmegen 2–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 4 April 2026Excelsior 0–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 9 August 2025NEC Nijmegen 5–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 6 May 2024Excelsior 0–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 13 August 2023NEC Nijmegen 3–4 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 19 February 2023Excelsior 0–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie

Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Excelsior

  • D. Garden3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.