8 September 2026, 16:45 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Eredivisie prediction & result

Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
Full time2 – 2

Final score: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% NEC Nijmegen, 30% draw, 31% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NEC Nijmegen at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NEC Nijmegen0%Draw4%Excelsior96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jamiro Monteiro
4'
⚽Adam Tahauiassist: Willum Thor Willumsson
10'
43'
⚽David Gardenassist: Irakli Yegoian
🔁Jamiro Monteiroout: Perr Schuurs
45'
🔁Bram Nuytinckout: Philippe Sandler
45'
45'
🔁Simon Janssenout: Kasey Bos
52'
Lennard Hartjes
🔁Dennis Geigerout: Noe Lebreton
63'
🔁Isak Hansen Aaröenout: Kevin Kers
63'
67'
🔁David Gardenout: Nesto groen
67'
🔁Ágúst Orri Thorsteinssonout: Aymen sliti
70'
Rick Meissen
71'
🔁Eric da Silva Moreiraout: Valentin Sulzbacher
73'
⚽Valentin Sulzbacherassist: Aymen sliti
81'
🔁Ilano Silva Timasout: Alireza Jahanbakhsh
🔁Gabriel·Brasout: Clement Bischoff
87'
⚽Noe Lebretonassist: Perr Schuurs
90+2'
90+5'
Valentin Sulzbacher

Match stats — NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior

69%Possession31%
11Shots14
3On target5
2Corners4

Line-ups

NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 73Gabriel BrásD
  • 17B. NuytinckD
  • 21T. StormD
  • 19Adam TahauiM
  • 35Jamiro MonteiroM
  • 18D. GeigerM
  • 77A. ThomasM
  • 11W. WillumssonM
  • 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
  • 10D. TadićF
Substitutes
  • 14K. SierhuisF
  • 38Joep GenesteG
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 9T. CheryM
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
  • 34Kevin KersF
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 99Clement BischoffF
  • 3P. SandlerD
Coach: Dick Schreuder
Excelsior 3-4-3
  • 1S. van GasselG
  • 3R. MeissenD
  • 4C. WidellD
  • 14J. PlugD
  • 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraM
  • 8I. YegoianM
  • 20L. HartjesM
  • 15S. JanssenM
  • 21I. Silva TimasF
  • 19D. GardenF
  • 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
Substitutes
  • 12K. BosF
  • 24Giulliano CairoM
  • 9Mario DomínguezF
  • 28N. GroenF
  • 11A. JahanbakhshF
  • 23Y. FineyM
  • 7A. SlitiF
  • 18V. SulzbacherM
  • 22O. TurayD
Coach: R. den Uil

Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to PEC Zwolle29 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt25 August 2026
  • L1-3Bodo/Glimt19 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Willem II15 August 2026

Excelsior

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Willem II5 September 2026
  • W2-1Sparta Rotterdam29 August 2026
  • L1-2PSV Eindhoven15 August 2026
  • W4-0away to Cambuur7 August 2026

What these results say

  • NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for NEC Nijmegen had three goals or more.
  • NEC Nijmegen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Excelsior scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Excelsior had three goals or more.
  • Excelsior won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12NEC Nijmegen102531718-111
13Excelsior103251619-311

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior

  • 4 April 2026Excelsior 0–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 9 August 2025NEC Nijmegen 5–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 6 May 2024Excelsior 0–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 13 August 2023NEC Nijmegen 3–4 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 19 February 2023Excelsior 0–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie

The full NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior record →

The result against the call

NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for NEC Nijmegen at 39% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Adam Tahaui 10' for NEC Nijmegen, David Garden 43' for Excelsior, Valentin Sulzbacher 73' for Excelsior, Noe Lebreton 90+2' for NEC Nijmegen.

How the call on NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 30% / 31%: the biggest move is NEC Nijmegen's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. NEC Nijmegen win39%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Excelsior win31%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.