Blackburn
vs
Sheffield Utd
Championship prediction
The model makes it 51% Blackburn, 22% draw, 27% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 1.96, 4.55 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Blackburn 2.03, Sheffield Utd 1.44.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Blackburn
- W2-1Middlesbrough22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Wolves14 August 2026
Sheffield Utd
- D0-0away to Swansea22 August 2026
- D0-0Birmingham15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Blackburn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Sheffield Utd
- 22 April 2026Sheffield Utd 1–3 BlackburnChampionship
- 21 October 2025Blackburn 1–3 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 3 May 2025Sheffield Utd 1–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 2 November 2024Blackburn 0–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 19 March 2023Sheffield Utd 3–2 BlackburnFA Cup
- 4 March 2023Blackburn 1–0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
Leading scorers
Blackburn
- A. Guðjohnsen2 goals
Sheffield Utd
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Blackburn carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.45 for Sheffield Utd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Blackburn D-W; Sheffield Utd D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for Blackburn and 1.44 for Sheffield Utd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Blackburn rate 0.79 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sheffield Utd rate 0.60 and 1.36.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 595 correct results out of 1255 settled predictions (47%), with 114 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Blackburn the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Blackburn against 1.44 for Sheffield Utd. Blackburn's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.36 for Sheffield Utd.