ADO Den Haag
vs
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 46% ADO Den Haag, 21% draw, 33% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 2.17, 4.76 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: ADO Den Haag 2.11, Fortuna Sittard 1.77.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
ADO Den Haag
- L1-4Groningen16 August 2026
- L0-2away to AZ Alkmaar8 August 2026
Fortuna Sittard
- L0-2AZ Alkmaar22 August 2026
- W3-1Cambuur15 August 2026
- D2-2away to PSV Eindhoven8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| 8 | Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard
- 25 April 2021ADO Den Haag 0–3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 20 February 2021Fortuna Sittard 2–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 9 November 2019Fortuna Sittard 1–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 31 October 2019Fortuna Sittard 3–0 ADO Den HaagKNVB Beker
- 3 April 2019Fortuna Sittard 0–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
ADO Den Haag carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.44 for Fortuna Sittard. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): ADO Den Haag L-L; Fortuna Sittard D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.77 for Fortuna Sittard. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ADO Den Haag rate 0.72 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Sittard rate 0.68 and 1.55.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fortuna Sittard, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ADO Den Haag the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for ADO Den Haag against 1.77 for Fortuna Sittard. ADO Den Haag's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.55 for Fortuna Sittard.