Ulsan Hyundai FC
vs
FC Seoul
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 45% Ulsan Hyundai FC, 23% draw, 32% FC Seoul — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.95, FC Seoul 1.64.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- L0-1away to Jeonbuk Motors22 August 2026
- L2-3Gangwon FC16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers8 August 2026
- W3-1FC Anyang2 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Seoul26 July 2026
FC Seoul
- W7-0away to FC Anyang22 August 2026
- W4-2Daejeon Citizen15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC8 August 2026
- D0-0away to Jeonbuk Motors1 August 2026
- L1-3Ulsan Hyundai FC26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 37 |
| 1 | FC Seoul | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 46 | 19 | +27 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- Yago Cariello4 goals
- Lee Dong-Gyeong3 goals2 assists
FC Seoul
- Lee Seung-Mo3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.56 for FC Seoul. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Ulsan Hyundai FC W-W-W-L-L; FC Seoul L-D-D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.64 for FC Seoul. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 0.73 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Seoul rate 0.78 and 1.41.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Seoul, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 0.1% chance of the title and FC Seoul 99.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 595 correct results out of 1255 settled predictions (47%), with 114 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.64 for FC Seoul. Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.41 for FC Seoul.