19 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Bodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
Full time1 – 3

Final score: NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Bodo/Glimt.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% NEC Nijmegen, 21% draw, 20% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 1.69, 4.76 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Champions League Play-offs tie. Second leg: Bodo/Glimt v NEC Nijmegen, 25 Aug →

Bodo/Glimt went through 6–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

NEC Nijmegen at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NEC Nijmegen0%Draw1%Bodo/Glimt99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
•Jens Petter Hauge
25'
⚽S. Fetassist: J. Hauge
Tobias Storm
43'
44'
⚽A. Helmersen (pen)
50'
⚽H. Aleesamiassist: P. Berg
59'
🔁J. Haugeout: O. Brynhildsen
64'
Ola Brynhildsen
🔁B. Linssenout: J. Monteiro
68'
🔁E. Morout: A. Tahaui
68'
🔁B. Pereiraout: K. Sierhuis
68'
76'
🔁O. Blombergout: J. Kitolano
76'
🔁F. Bjorkanout: I. Maatta
🔁D. Fonvilleout: A. Kabar
82'
🔁T. Cheryout: K. Kers
82'
⚽C. Bischoffassist: D. Tadic
85'
Jamiro Monteiro
90+1'
90+2'
🔁S. Fetout: V. Nielsen
90+2'
🔁S. Auklendout: J. Mvuka Mugisha

Match stats — NEC Nijmegen vs Bodo/Glimt

69%Possession31%
22Shots8
6On target4
7Corners2

Line-ups

NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 2B. PereiraD
  • 21T. StormD
  • 24D. FonvilleD
  • 7E. MorM
  • 6D. NejasmicM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 99C. BischoffM
  • 9T. CheryF
  • 10D. TadicF
  • 30B. LinssenF
Substitutes
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 73G. BrasD
  • 17B. NuytinckD
  • 5T. OuwejanD
  • 66A. KabarD
  • 35J. MonteiroM
  • 8I. Hansen-AaroenM
  • 11W. T. WillumssonM
  • 32V. van CrooijM
Coach: Dick Schreuder
Bodo/Glimt 4-3-3
  • 12N. HaikinG
  • 20F. SjovoldD
  • 4O. L. BjortuftD
  • 5H. AleesamiD
  • 15F. BjorkanD
  • 8S. AuklendM
  • 7P. BergM
  • 19S. FetM
  • 11O. BlombergF
  • 9A. HelmersenF
  • 10J. HaugeF
Substitutes
  • 1J. LundG
  • 43M. L. AndersenG
  • 2V. NielsenD
  • 14U. SaltnesM
  • 16J. KitolanoM
  • 25I. MaattaD
  • 22J. Mvuka MugishaM
  • 32K. SolhaugM
  • 24D. BassiF
Coach: Kjetil Knutsen

Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Bodo/Glimt

NEC Nijmegen

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1away to Willem II15 August 2026
  • W2-1Olympiakos Piraeus11 August 2026
  • L1-2Telstar8 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus4 August 2026

Bodo/Glimt

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Union St. Gilloise11 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Valerenga8 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Union St. Gilloise4 August 2026
  • W4-0Lillestrom31 July 2026
  • W3-0away to Sandefjord26 July 2026

What these results say

  • NEC Nijmegen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • NEC Nijmegen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for NEC Nijmegen had three goals or more.
  • Bodo/Glimt went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Bodo/Glimt scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Bodo/Glimt had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bodo/Glimt won 3–1 at NEC Nijmegen. The model had leaned towards a win for NEC Nijmegen at 59% and given a win for Bodo/Glimt 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: S. Fet 25' for Bodo/Glimt, A. Helmersen (penalty) 44' for Bodo/Glimt, H. Aleesami 50' for Bodo/Glimt, C. Bischoff 85' for NEC Nijmegen.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.