Bodo/Glimt
vs
NEC Nijmegen
UEFA Champions League prediction
The model makes it 36% Bodo/Glimt, 24% draw, 40% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 1.58, NEC Nijmegen 1.67.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Bodo/Glimt
- W2-1away to Valerenga8 August 2026
- W4-0Lillestrom31 July 2026
- W3-0away to Sandefjord26 July 2026
- W3-0Ham-Kam22 July 2026
- W1-0Fredrikstad17 July 2026
NEC Nijmegen
- L1-2Telstar8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | Eliteserien | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 12 | +31 | 41 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Bodo/Glimt
- K. Høgh7 goals4 assists
- A. Helmersen6 goals1 assists
NEC Nijmegen
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bodo/Glimt carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.98 for NEC Nijmegen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Bodo/Glimt W-W-W-W-W; NEC Nijmegen L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.67 for NEC Nijmegen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bodo/Glimt rate 0.88 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NEC Nijmegen rate 1.22 and 0.95.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 317 correct results out of 659 settled predictions (48%), with 62 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt against 1.67 for NEC Nijmegen. Bodo/Glimt's attack/defence rating is 0.88/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.95 for NEC Nijmegen.