Atletico Madrid vs Malaga La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Malaga.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Atletico Madrid, 25% draw, 21% Malaga — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Madrid at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Malaga
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Jan OblakG
- 27Jorge DomínguezD
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 17Dávid HanckoD
- 30Dani MartinezD
- 6KokeM
- 12Carlos MartínM
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 16Arnau OrtizM
- 11Ademola LookmanF
- 14Marcos LlorenteM
- 10Alex BaenaM
- 7Kang-in LeeM
- 20Giuliano SimeoneF
- 23Morten HjulmandM
- 1Juan MussoG
- 18Marc PubillD
- 2José María GiménezD
- 22Alejandro GrimaldoD
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 3Carlos PugaD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 31Rafa GarridoD
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 8Carlos DotorM
- 22Dani LorenzoM
- 11Joaquín MuñozM
- 9ChupeteF
- 14Rafa RodriguezM
- 19Juan CruzM
- 12Jose SalinasD
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 13Carlos LopezG
- 5Álex PastorD
- 28Joseph OtunencheM
- 32Juan FernandézF
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Malaga
- 10 February 2018Malaga 0–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 16 September 2017Atletico Madrid 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 1 April 2017Malaga 0–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 29 October 2016Atletico Madrid 4–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 23 April 2016Atletico Madrid 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Malaga
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena53
- G. Simeone42
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Madrid beat Malaga 2–0. The model had made a win for Atletico Madrid its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Lee Kang-In 70' for Atletico Madrid, A. Baena 85' for Atletico Madrid. On expected goals it finished 0.82–0.15.