Atletico Madrid
vs
Malaga
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 55% Atletico Madrid, 25% draw, 20% Malaga — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 1.76, Malaga 0.97.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Malaga
- 10 February 2018Malaga 0–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 16 September 2017Atletico Madrid 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 1 April 2017Malaga 0–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 29 October 2016Atletico Madrid 4–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 23 April 2016Atletico Madrid 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 20 December 2015Malaga 1–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atletico Madrid carry a model rating of 7.11 against 7.03 for Malaga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.97 for Malaga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Madrid rate 1.55 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Malaga rate 0.72 and 0.60.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Atletico Madrid against 0.97 for Malaga. Atletico Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.55/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/0.6 for Malaga.