Mamelodi Sundowns
vs
Marumo Gallants
Premier Soccer League prediction
The model makes it 89% Mamelodi Sundowns, 8% draw, 3% Marumo Gallants — fair odds of 1.12, 12.50 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Mamelodi Sundowns 3.58, Marumo Gallants 0.63.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
A clear gap in the ratings
Mamelodi Sundowns carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.08 for Marumo Gallants. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.58 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.63 for Marumo Gallants. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mamelodi Sundowns rate 1.03 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Marumo Gallants rate 0.38 and 1.84.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (11%), 4-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mamelodi Sundowns the highest probability at 89%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.58 expected goals for Mamelodi Sundowns against 0.63 for Marumo Gallants. Mamelodi Sundowns's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.84 for Marumo Gallants.