20 August 2026, 00:30 UTC

Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Allianz Field, Saint Paul
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Minnesota United FC 1-2 Atlanta United FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Minnesota United FC, 23% draw, 27% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.00, 4.35 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Minnesota United FC at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Minnesota United FC0%Draw6%Atlanta United FC94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
Junior Alonso
Michael Boxall
29'
Joaquín Pereyra
32'
37'
⚽T. Jacob
46'
Adrian Gill
56'
Cooper Sanchez
⚽A. Markanich
58'
64'
🔁C. Sanchezout: S. Alzate
64'
🔁F. Picaultout: L. Brennan
🔁M. Caldeiraout: A. Jackson
68'
🔁B. Hlongwaneout: M. Dieng
68'
Tomás Chancalay
75'
78'
⚽T. Muyumbaassist: A. Miranchuk
79'
🔁A. Miranchukout: M. Edwards
🔁T. Chancalayout: K. Yeboah
80'
🔁W. Trappout: M. Gonzalez
80'
84'
🔁T. Muyumbaout: P. Diaz
84'
🔁A. Gillout: E. Mihaj
Owen Gene
87'

Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC

53%Possession47%
13Shots10
4On target3
6Corners4
2xG0.93

Goals against chances

Minnesota United FC1 from 2.00 xGless than the chances were worth
Atlanta United FC2 from 0.93 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Minnesota United FC 3-4-3
  • 12D. CallenderG
  • 28J. DiazD
  • 15M. BoxallD
  • 23M. DugganD
  • 21B. HlongwaneM
  • 30O. GeneM
  • 20W. TrappM
  • 13A. MarkanichM
  • 26J. PereyraF
  • 22M. CaldeiraF
  • 8T. ChancalayF
Substitutes
  • 1A. SmirG
  • 3K. DuncanD
  • 2D. PadelfordD
  • 67C. HarveyM
  • 24J. GresselM
  • 16A. JacksonM
  • 9K. YeboahF
  • 18M. GonzalezF
  • 29M. DiengF
Coach: Cameron Knowles
Atlanta United FC 4-3-3
  • 1L. HoyosG
  • 55T. JacobD
  • 5S. GregersenD
  • 6J. AlonsoD
  • 3E. BaezD
  • 48C. SanchezM
  • 16A. GillM
  • 8T. MuyumbaM
  • 59A. MiranchukF
  • 10M. AlmironF
  • 22F. PicaultF
Substitutes
  • 42J. HibbertG
  • 27P. DiazD
  • 47M. EdwardsD
  • 2R. HernandezD
  • 4E. MihajD
  • 7S. AlzateM
  • 20L. BrennanM
  • 30C. TogashiF
  • 19Sergio SantosF
Coach: Gerardo Martino

Form going into Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC

Minnesota United FC

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Real Salt Lake16 August 2026
  • D1-1San Diego2 August 2026
  • D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Sporting Kansas City23 July 2026

Atlanta United FC

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1New York Red Bulls15 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Philadelphia Union1 August 2026
  • L1-4away to New England Revolution25 July 2026
  • D2-2away to Charlotte23 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Nashville SC18 July 2026

What these results say

  • Minnesota United FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Minnesota United FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Minnesota United FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Atlanta United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Atlanta United FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atlanta United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Minnesota United FC341111125658-244
13Atlanta United FC3496194360-1733

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC

  • 4 May 2024Atlanta United FC 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 28 August 2019Atlanta United FC 2–1 Minnesota United FCUS Open Cup
  • 29 May 2019Atlanta United FC 3–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 1 April 2018Minnesota United FC 0–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 3 October 2017Atlanta United FC 2–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and Atlanta United FC

Minnesota United FC

GoalsAssists

  • K. Yeboah184

Atlanta United FC

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atlanta United FC won 2–1 at Minnesota United FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Minnesota United FC at 50% and given a win for Atlanta United FC 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: T. Jacob 37' for Atlanta United FC, A. Markanich 58' for Minnesota United FC, T. Muyumba 78' for Atlanta United FC. On expected goals it finished 2.00–0.93.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.