Levski Sofia
vs
AEK Athens FC
UEFA Champions League prediction
The model makes it 32% Levski Sofia, 32% draw, 36% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 0.96, AEK Athens FC 1.04.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Levski Sofia
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 August 2026
- W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026
AEK Athens FC
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | First League | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. AEK Athens FC has not started the league season yet. Full tables
The two sides
Levski Sofia carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.75 for AEK Athens FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Levski Sofia W-W-W-W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Levski Sofia and 1.04 for AEK Athens FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levski Sofia rate 0.54 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEK Athens FC rate 0.75 and 0.94.
That points to 32% for over two and a half goals and 41% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 317 correct results out of 659 settled predictions (48%), with 62 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Levski Sofia against 1.04 for AEK Athens FC. Levski Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.54/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/0.94 for AEK Athens FC.