20 August 2026, 00:00 UTC

Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result

Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sporting Kansas City 1-1 St. Louis City.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Sporting Kansas City, 25% draw, 54% St. Louis City — fair odds of 4.76, 4.00 and 1.85.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St. Louis City at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting Kansas City3%Draw92%St. Louis City5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Zorhan Bassong
15'
21'
Christopher Durkin
Jansen Miller
45'
45'
⚽E. Lowen
•Calvin Harris
55'
⚽C. Harrisassist: T. Calheira
55'
61'
Conrad Wallem
62'
🔁E. Lowenout: C. Holse
62'
🔁S. Becherout: A. Matan
🔁T. Calheiraout: S. Suleymanov
64'
🔁Z. Bassongout: J. Bartlett
75'
🔁C. Harrisout: S. Afrifa
75'
84'
🔁C. Wallemout: J. Orozco
84'
🔁S. Jeongout: P. Ault
🔁E. Karicout: J. Reid
89'

Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City

49%Possession51%
18Shots7
3On target2
9Corners2
1.3xG0.52

Goals against chances

Sporting Kansas City1 from 1.30 xGabout what the chances were worth
St. Louis City1 from 0.52 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
  • 30S. ClevelandG
  • 8J. DavisD
  • 15J. MillerD
  • 28W. MeyerD
  • 18E. KaricD
  • 7CapitaM
  • 4L. JohnsenM
  • 22Z. BassongM
  • 11C. HarrisM
  • 19T. CalheiraF
  • 9D. JoveljicF
Substitutes
  • 1J. PulskampG
  • 57Diego Borges
  • 99J. ReidD
  • 16J. BartlettD
  • 13J. ReynoldsD
  • 2I. JamesD
  • 93S. SuleymanovF
  • 17S. AfrifaF
Coach: Raphael Wicky
St. Louis City 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. BurkiG
  • 5L. MacNaughtonD
  • 32T. BaumgartlD
  • 21D. PolvaraD
  • 6C. WallemM
  • 8C. DurkinM
  • 24D. EdelmanM
  • 14T. TotlandM
  • 77S. JeongF
  • 10E. LowenF
  • 11S. BecherF
Substitutes
  • 39B. LundtG
  • 20Rafael SantosD
  • 99J. OrozcoD
  • 4M. MbackeD
  • 28M. PerezM
  • 19C. HolseF
  • 7T. OstrakM
  • 29P. AultM
  • 23A. MatanM
Coach: Yoann Damet

Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City

Sporting Kansas City

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Colorado Rapids16 August 2026
  • L0-2Houston Dynamo2 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Los Angeles FC26 July 2026
  • W2-1Minnesota United FC23 July 2026
  • L2-3away to St. Louis City17 July 2026

St. Louis City

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to San Jose Earthquakes16 August 2026
  • D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
  • W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026
  • W3-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy23 July 2026
  • W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026

What these results say

  • Sporting Kansas City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sporting Kansas City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • St. Louis City won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Sporting Kansas City3475224081-4126
3St. Louis City34159105948+1154

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City

  • 17 July 2026St. Louis City 3–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 15 May 2025St. Louis City 2–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 6 April 2025Sporting Kansas City 2–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 29 September 2024St. Louis City 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 21 July 2024Sporting Kansas City 1–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City

Sporting Kansas City

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.

St. Louis City

GoalsAssists

  • Rafael Navarro196

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Louis City at 54% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: E. Lowen 45' for St. Louis City, C. Harris 55' for Sporting Kansas City. On expected goals it finished 1.30–0.52.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.