Sporting Kansas City
vs
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 29% Sporting Kansas City, 29% draw, 42% St. Louis City — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City 1.07, St. Louis City 1.32.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sporting Kansas City
- L0-2Houston Dynamo2 August 2026
- L0-4away to Los Angeles FC26 July 2026
- W2-1Minnesota United FC23 July 2026
- L2-3away to St. Louis City17 July 2026
- L1-2New York Red Bulls24 May 2026
St. Louis City
- D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
- W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy23 July 2026
- W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026
- W3-0Austin23 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 |
| 7 | St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Sporting Kansas City carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.62 for St. Louis City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sporting Kansas City L-L-W-L-L; St. Louis City W-W-W-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 1.32 for St. Louis City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Kansas City rate 0.55 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St. Louis City rate 0.62 and 1.03.
That points to 43% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City against 1.32 for St. Louis City. Sporting Kansas City's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.03 for St. Louis City.