Nacional
vs
Alverca
Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Nacional 1-3 Alverca.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Nacional, 29% draw, 35% Alverca — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nacional 1.40, Alverca 1.38.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Nacional vs Alverca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nacional at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nacional vs Alverca
Line-ups
- 1Renato BellucciG
- 52Wesley GasolinaD
- 33Francisco GonçalvesD
- 38Zé VitorD
- 21W. KokoloD
- 10Daniel JúniorM
- 6Matheus DiasM
- 8Miguel BaezaM
- 11S. GavrielF
- 99Pablo RuanF
- 7M. JensenF
- 50KevynG
- 17F. NavaF
- 9A. ObandoF
- 20Matchoi DjalóF
- 26Joel da SilvaM
- 15C. LabidiM
- 23Mateus IseppeM
- 12Song Min-KyuF
- 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la CruzD
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 4Y. BojangD
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 12I. JamesD
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
- 6D. GuiM
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 55Francisco ChissumbaM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 19D. CamaraF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 15I. JulianD
- 18Z. KassaryM
- 26Matheus FrançaF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 23André PauloG
- 35RayanM
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 27Toni TamaritF
- 7André VidigalM
Form going into Nacional vs Alverca
Nacional
- L0-2away to Sporting CP5 September 2026
- L2-3Estrela30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vitória SC23 August 2026
- W2-0Estoril16 August 2026
Alverca
- L1-2SC Braga5 September 2026
- D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting CP22 August 2026
- D2-2Estrela15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nacional | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Alverca | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional vs Alverca
- 12 September 2026Nacional 1–3 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 18 April 2026Nacional 1–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 7 December 2025Alverca 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Nacional and Alverca
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Alverca
- Vivaldo Semedo2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.40 goals for Nacional and 1.38 for Alverca; the game produced 1 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Francisco Chissumba 34' (Alverca), Dawda Camara Sankharé 36' (Alverca), Dawda Camara Sankharé 42' (Alverca), Matchoi Djaló 81' (Nacional).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nacional the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Nacional against 1.38 for Alverca. Nacional's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.01 for Alverca.