Casa Pia vs FC Porto Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Casa Pia 1-4 FC Porto.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Casa Pia, 29% draw, 39% FC Porto — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Casa Pia vs FC Porto
Line-ups
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 18GeraldesD
- 3KalyD
- 43David SousaD
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 16SilviM
- 80L. OforiM
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 77B. PauwelsM
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 4João GoulartD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 90CassianoF
- 59Abdu DafeM
- 10RochinhaF
- 20A. JattaF
- 17E. MaurinF
- 19K. PrietoF
- 24S. PérezM
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 74Francisco MouraD
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 7WilliamF
- 19André SilvaF
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 33SouzaD
- 42S. FofanaM
- 29S. GiménezF
- 52Martim FernandesD
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 21D. PrpićD
- 18N. PérezD
- 17Borja SainzF
- 22A. VarelaM
Form going into Casa Pia vs FC Porto
Casa Pia
Primeira Liga
- D0-0away to Vitória SC6 September 2026
FC Porto
Primeira Liga
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 7 |
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs FC Porto
- 2 February 2026Casa Pia 2–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 24 August 2025FC Porto 4–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 12 April 2025Casa Pia 0–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 2 December 2024FC Porto 2–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 21 April 2024Casa Pia 1–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Casa Pia and FC Porto
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Gabri Veiga43
- Borja Sainz40
- André Silva32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Porto won 4–1 at Casa Pia. The model had made a win for FC Porto its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Henrique Araújo (penalty) 43' for Casa Pia, André Silva 45+3' for FC Porto, Jakub Kiwior 60' for FC Porto, Borja Sainz 66' for FC Porto, Santiago Giménez (penalty) 90+1' for FC Porto.
How the call on Casa Pia v FC Porto has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 30% / 30% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 32% / 29% / 39%: the biggest move is Casa Pia's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Casa Pia win32%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- FC Porto win39%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.