Casa Pia
vs
FC Porto
Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Casa Pia 1-4 FC Porto.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Casa Pia, 28% draw, 43% FC Porto — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Casa Pia 1.21, FC Porto 1.71.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Casa Pia vs FC Porto
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Casa Pia vs FC Porto
Line-ups
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 18GeraldesD
- 3KalyD
- 43David SousaD
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 16SilviM
- 80L. OforiM
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 77B. PauwelsM
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 4João GoulartD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 90CassianoF
- 59Abdu DafeM
- 10RochinhaF
- 20A. JattaF
- 17E. MaurinF
- 19K. PrietoF
- 24S. PérezM
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 74Francisco MouraD
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 7WilliamF
- 19André SilvaF
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 33SouzaD
- 42S. FofanaM
- 29S. GiménezF
- 52Martim FernandesD
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 21D. PrpićD
- 18N. PérezD
- 17Borja SainzF
- 22A. VarelaM
Form going into Casa Pia vs FC Porto
Casa Pia
- D0-0away to Vitória SC6 September 2026
- L0-1Moreirense30 August 2026
- L0-2away to GIL Vicente24 August 2026
- L0-7Benfica17 August 2026
FC Porto
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Academico Viseu29 August 2026
- W2-0Arouca23 August 2026
- W2-0away to Rio Ave15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 1 |
| 1 | FC Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs FC Porto
- 12 September 2026Casa Pia 1–4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 2 February 2026Casa Pia 2–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 24 August 2025FC Porto 4–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 12 April 2025Casa Pia 0–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 2 December 2024FC Porto 2–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 21 April 2024Casa Pia 1–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Casa Pia and FC Porto
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
FC Porto
- Gabri Veiga3 goals3 assists
- Borja Sainz3 goals
- André Silva3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.21 goals for Casa Pia and 1.71 for FC Porto; the game produced 1 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Henrique Araújo 43' (Casa Pia), André Silva 45' (FC Porto), Jakub Kiwior 60' (FC Porto), Borja Sainz 66' (FC Porto), Santiago Giménez 90' (FC Porto).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Casa Pia against 1.71 for FC Porto. Casa Pia's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.33/1.03 for FC Porto.