12 September 2026, 11:00 UTC

1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Avnet-Arena, Magdeburg
Full time3 – 0

Final score: 1. FC Magdeburg 3-0 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% 1. FC Magdeburg, 29% draw, 32% 1. FC Kaiserslautern — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Magdeburg at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Magdeburg99%Draw1%1. FC Kaiserslautern0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Iyoha
12'
⚽A. Nollenbergerassist: D. Heber
16'
•Mateusz Żukowski
32'
46'
🔁M. Ritterout: M. Sauer
46'
🔁E. Yardimciout: M. Berisha
⚽E. Iyohaassist: M. Kwarteng
53'
61'
🔁A. Murphyout: M. Haas
61'
🔁S. Astaout: P. Joly
65'
Maxwell Gyamfi
Anselmo Garcia McNulty
71'
71'
🔁T. Tazemetaout: I. Kanate
🔁H. Bockhornout: P. Nadjombe
73'
🔁D. Heberout: F. Chavez
73'
🔁M. Kwartengout: T. Musel
73'
🔁E. Iyohaout: M. Baars
80'
🔁L. Hyrylainenout: P. Jaeckel
85'
86'
Jan Elvedi

Match stats — 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

53%Possession47%
18Shots13
10On target6
4Corners3
1.12xG1.08

Goals against chances

1. FC Magdeburg3 from 1.12 xGmore than the chances were worth
1. FC Kaiserslautern0 from 1.08 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3
  • 1D. ReimannG
  • 7H. BockhornD
  • 15D. HeberD
  • 3A. Garcia MacNultyD
  • 17A. NollenbergerD
  • 38L. HyrylainenM
  • 10M. KwartengM
  • 21F. MichelM
  • 8E. IyohaF
  • 22M. ZukowskiF
  • 23B. AtikF
Substitutes
  • 30N. KruthG
  • 6P. JaeckelD
  • 28P. NadjombeD
  • 11F. ChavezM
  • 33L. MergnerM
  • 26T. MuselM
  • 9R. SimicF
  • 29R. TachieF
  • 35M. BaarsF
Coach: Petrik Sander
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. KrahlG
  • 33J. ElvediD
  • 4M. GyamfiD
  • 14J. RasmussenD
  • 2S. AstaM
  • 6F. KunzeM
  • 8S. SahinM
  • 3A. MurphyM
  • 39T. TazemetaF
  • 7M. RitterF
  • 17E. YardimciF
Substitutes
  • 40E. KamgaG
  • 22M. HaasD
  • 26P. JolyD
  • 5K. FreesD
  • 21M. SauerM
  • 37L. RobinsonM
  • 41D. SchrammM
  • 20M. BerishaF
  • 11I. KanateF
Coach: Torsten Lieberknecht

Form going into 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

1. FC Magdeburg

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Hertha BSC6 September 2026
  • W2-0Holstein Kiel30 August 2026
  • W3-0away to VfL Osnabrück15 August 2026
  • L1-6Eintracht Braunschweig8 August 2026

1. FC Kaiserslautern

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0SV Darmstadt 985 September 2026
  • W2-1away to FC St. Pauli30 August 2026
  • D0-0Karlsruher SC15 August 2026
  • D0-0away to VfL Wolfsburg8 August 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Magdeburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for 1. FC Magdeburg had three goals or more.
  • 1. FC Kaiserslautern went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • 1. FC Kaiserslautern kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
51. FC Magdeburg95132012+816
31. FC Kaiserslautern953194+518

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

  • 17 May 20261. FC Magdeburg 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 20 December 20251. FC Kaiserslautern 2–3 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 6 April 20251. FC Magdeburg 2–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 3 November 20241. FC Kaiserslautern 2–2 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 4 May 2024FC Kaiserslautern 4–1 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 2 December 2023FC Magdeburg 4–1 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern

1. FC Magdeburg

GoalsAssists

  • E. Iyoha60
  • M. Żukowski50

1. FC Kaiserslautern

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

1. FC Magdeburg beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3–0. The model had made a win for 1. FC Magdeburg its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: E. Iyoha 12' for 1. FC Magdeburg, A. Nollenberger 16' for 1. FC Magdeburg, E. Iyoha 53' for 1. FC Magdeburg. On expected goals it finished 1.12–1.08.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.