Regular Season - 6 · 12 September 2026, 19:30 UTC

Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC Primeira Liga prediction & result

Viseu
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Academico Viseu 2-1 Vitória SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Academico Viseu, 30% draw, 29% Vitória SC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Academico Viseu 1.48, Vitória SC 1.06.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC

51%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 11%2-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Academico Viseu at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Academico Viseu4%Draw93%Vitória SC3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
Lohann Doucet
45'
🔁Lohann Doucetout: Gonçalo Nogueira
⚽Lorougnon Gohi
53'
60'
🔁Beni Mukendiout: Alan de Souza Guimarães
67'
⚽Gonçalo Nogueiraassist: Alan de Souza Guimarães
🔁Cihan Kahramanout: Alejandro Mestanza
68'
🔁Lorougnon Gohiout: Nils Mortimer
68'
75'
Arnel Jakupović
André Clóvis
76'
77'
🔁Arnel Jakupovićout: Alioune Ndoye
77'
🔁Oumar Camaraout: Miguel Nogueira
Alejandro Mestanza
80'
84'
🔁Ahmed Sidibéout: Toni Borevković
Luis Silva
86'
88'
Toni Borevković
🔁Robinhoout: Tomas Domingos
90'
🔁André Clóvisout: Mohamed Bouldini
90'
⚽Mohamed Bouldini
90+3'
🔁Gustavo Costaout: Pedro Barcelos
90+4'
90+5'
Alioune Ndoye
Nils Mortimer
90+5'

Match stats — Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC

46%Possession54%
11Shots22
4On target7
4Corners8

Line-ups

Academico Viseu 4-1-4-1
  • 98EwertonG
  • 75RobinhoD
  • 41A. CorreiaD
  • 2N. MichelisD
  • 57G. CostaD
  • 7Luís SilvaM
  • 31João GuilhermeM
  • 14S. MesseguemM
  • 8C. KahramanM
  • 47L. GohiM
  • 33André ClóvisF
Substitutes
  • 10Á. ZamoraF
  • 1Marcos LavínG
  • 22Nils MortimerF
  • 44Rúben PereiraD
  • 5Pedro BarcelosD
  • 9M. BouldiniF
  • 45Alejandro MestanzaM
  • 3Miguel BrauD
  • 21Tomás DomingosD
Coach: Bruno Pinheiro
Vitória SC 4-2-3-1
  • 48O. ZychG
  • 23T. StrataD
  • 28Thiago BalieiroD
  • 5A. SidibéD
  • 13João MendesD
  • 16BeniM
  • 44L. DoucetM
  • 11GustavoM
  • 20SamuM
  • 7O. CamaraM
  • 9A. JakupovicF
Substitutes
  • 21T. BorevkovićD
  • 22J. CastilloG
  • 2Miguel MagaD
  • 19V. AnderssonM
  • 82F. DiasD
  • 24A. NdoyeF
  • 29V. OuotroF
  • 4Óscar RivasD
  • 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
Coach: Tiago Margarido

Form going into Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC

Academico Viseu

  • W1-0away to GIL Vicente6 September 2026
  • L0-3FC Porto29 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Maritimo22 August 2026
  • L0-1Santa Clara15 August 2026

Vitória SC

  • D0-0Casa Pia6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to SC Braga31 August 2026
  • W1-0Nacional23 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Sporting CP14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Academico Viseu622279-28
14Vitória SC611447-34

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Academico Viseu vs Vitória SC

  • 12 September 2026Academico Viseu 2–1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Academico Viseu and Vitória SC

Academico Viseu

  • André Clóvis2 goals

Vitória SC

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.48 goals for Academico Viseu and 1.06 for Vitória SC; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Lorougnon Gohi 53' (Academico Viseu), Gonçalo Nogueira 67' (Vitória SC), Mohamed Bouldini 90' (Academico Viseu).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Academico Viseu the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Academico Viseu against 1.06 for Vitória SC. Academico Viseu's attack/defence rating is 0.97/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/0.94 for Vitória SC.