FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: FC Midtjylland 2-0 HNK Rijeka.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% FC Midtjylland, 28% draw, 24% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Midtjylland at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka
Line-ups
- 1E. OlafssonG
- 8P. BillingD
- 3M. JensenD
- 22M. B. SorensenD
- 11D. OsorioM
- 5R. KristensenM
- 19P. BravoM
- 21D. CastilloM
- 20V. ByskovM
- 7FranculinoF
- 10Cho Gue-SungF
- 25N. BakkerG
- 6M. ErlicD
- 13A. GabrielD
- 15D. Beni
- 34A. Ndiaye
- 29K. WatjenM
- 27S. JohannesenM
- 80Dani SilvaM
- 14E. ChilufyaF
- 99A. TodorovicG
- 22A. OrecD
- 45A. MajstorovicD
- 5A. BarcoD
- 34M. DevetakD
- 8I. CubelicM
- 6B. PavicM
- 10T. FrukM
- 26T. DantasM
- 4N. JankovicM
- 18D. Adu AdjeiF
- 13I. VekicG
- 1V. KovacG
- 23J. LasickasD
- 3M. ZivkovicD
- 51A. HusicD
- 91N. BodeticD
- 14A. GojakM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 21J. PuljicF
Form going into FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka
FC Midtjylland
- D1-1away to Lyngby16 August 2026
- W3-2Bohemians13 August 2026
- W2-0away to Bohemians6 August 2026
- W2-1AC Horsens2 August 2026
- L0-2Beşiktaş30 July 2026
HNK Rijeka
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ilves13 August 2026
- W1-0Ilves6 August 2026
- W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Derry City30 July 2026
What these results say
- FC Midtjylland scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for HNK Rijeka had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FC Midtjylland and HNK Rijeka in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Superliga · HNL
Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and HNK Rijeka
FC Midtjylland
- F. Etim4 goals2 assists
- S. Iheanacho3 goals1 assist
HNK Rijeka
- D. Adu-Adjei4 goals3 assists
- T. Fruk2 goals3 assists
- Tiago Dantas2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.