SC Freiburg vs Motherwell UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: SC Freiburg 4-1 Motherwell.
Before kick-off the model made it 77% SC Freiburg, 15% draw, 8% Motherwell — fair odds of 1.30, 6.67 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Freiburg at 77% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SC Freiburg vs Motherwell
Line-ups
- 1M. BackhausG
- 29P. TreuD
- 28M. GinterD
- 37M. RosenfelderD
- 30C. GunterD
- 8M. EggesteinM
- 16Y. EngelhardtM
- 22C. IrieM
- 14Y. SuzukiM
- 7D. ScherhantM
- 31I. MatanovicF
- 21F. MullerG
- 24J. HuthG
- 17L. KublerD
- 33J. MakengoD
- 43B. OgbusD
- 5A. JungD
- 3P. LienhartD
- 27B. YilmazD
- 32V. GrifoM
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 4J. Knight-LebelD
- 23E. WilsonD
- 45E. LongeloD
- 8L. FadingerM
- 11A. LowryM
- 71J. HodgeM
- 18T. MaswanhiseF
- 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
- 19I. SaidF
- 21Matty ConnellyG
- 20D. WilliamsD
- 2S. O'DonnellD
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 7T. SparrowM
- 25O. WhyteM
- 27M. BoothM
- 29Z. McAllisterM
- 9A. StamatelopoulosF
Form going into SC Freiburg vs Motherwell
SC Freiburg
- W3-1away to Motherwell20 August 2026
Motherwell
- L1-3SC Freiburg20 August 2026
- W2-0HJK Helsinki13 August 2026
- D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
- D1-1away to HJK Helsinki6 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
What these results say
- Motherwell scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
SC Freiburg and Motherwell in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 9 | Motherwell | Premiership | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Bundesliga · Premiership
Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs Motherwell
- 20 August 2026Motherwell 1–3 SC FreiburgUEFA Europa Conference League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and Motherwell
SC Freiburg
- Y. Suzuki4 goals
- I. Matanović3 goals1 assist
Motherwell
- A. Lowry2 goals1 assist
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goal2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.