FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: FC Lugano 2-1 Maccabi Tel Aviv.
Before kick-off the model made it 77% FC Lugano, 13% draw, 10% Maccabi Tel Aviv — fair odds of 1.30, 7.69 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 77% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Line-ups
- 16D. von BallmoosG
- 6A. PapadopoulosD
- 17L. MaiD
- 3H. DelcroixD
- 46M. ZanottiM
- 25U. BislimiM
- 8A. GrgicM
- 21Y. CimignaniM
- 11R. SteffenF
- 27D. Dos SantosF
- 91K. BehrensF
- 28F. GebhardtG
- 39C. NdiayeG
- 4D. KelvinD
- 18J. BichselD
- 26M. MarquesD
- 23G. AjdinM
- 14A. KendouciM
- 22B. D. Castro EspinosaF
- 24E. PihlstromF
- 22O. MelikaG
- 6T. AsanteD
- 5M. CamaraD
- 13R. ShlomoD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 42D. PeretzM
- 28I. SissokhoM
- 36I. ShaharM
- 77O. DavidaF
- 9E. SoklerF
- 29H. VarelaF
- 51S. SaadiaG
- 90R. MishpatiG
- 21N. Ben HarushD
- 41I. Ben HamoD
- 25S. RosenD
- 18D. GlazerM
- 30I. NoyM
- 23O. N. Azo
- 60I. Ben SimonF
Form going into FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
FC Lugano
- D2-2away to NSI Runavik13 August 2026
- W5-0FC Zurich9 August 2026
- W2-0NSI Runavik6 August 2026
- W4-1away to Grasshoppers2 August 2026
- W5-1away to Dukagjini29 July 2026
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- W3-1away to CSKA Sofia13 August 2026
- L0-3CSKA Sofia6 August 2026
- W1-0Sheriff Tiraspol30 July 2026
- W5-0away to Sheriff Tiraspol23 July 2026
What these results say
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Maccabi Tel Aviv had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FC Lugano and Maccabi Tel Aviv in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | Super League | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 25 |
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super League · Ligat Ha'al
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and Maccabi Tel Aviv
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assist
- H. Delcroix3 goals1 assist
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Dor Peretz5 goals1 assist
- E. Sokler2 goals1 assist
- O. Davida2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.