FC St. Gallen
vs
FC Luzern
The model makes it 67% FC St. Gallen, 16% draw, 17% FC Luzern — fair odds of 1.49, 6.25 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: FC St. Gallen 3.01, FC Luzern 1.56.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC St. Gallen
- W3-2away to FC Vaduz2 August 2026
- W2-1FC Zurich26 July 2026
FC Luzern
- L0-3away to FC Sion2 August 2026
- L1-3FC Thun25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC St. Gallen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 | FC Luzern | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FC St. Gallen vs FC Luzern
- 12 April 2026FC Luzern 2–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 1 February 2026FC Luzern 2–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 24 August 2025FC St. Gallen 0–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 3 April 2025FC Luzern 1–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 2 February 2025FC Luzern 2–0 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 21 September 2024FC St. Gallen 2–3 FC LuzernSuper League
Leading scorers
FC St. Gallen
- E. Owusu2 goals
- L. Görtler1 goals1 assists
FC Luzern
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC St. Gallen carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.38 for FC Luzern. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC St. Gallen W-W; FC Luzern L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.01 goals for FC St. Gallen and 1.56 for FC Luzern. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC St. Gallen rate 0.90 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Luzern rate 0.69 and 1.77.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC St. Gallen the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.01 expected goals for FC St. Gallen against 1.56 for FC Luzern. FC St. Gallen's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.77 for FC Luzern.