9 August 2026, 14:30 UTC

FC St. Gallen vs FC Luzern Super League prediction & result

Kybunpark, St. Gallen
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FC St. Gallen 2-2 FC Luzern.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% FC St. Gallen, 16% draw, 17% FC Luzern — fair odds of 1.49, 6.25 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC St. Gallen at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC St. Gallen0%Draw9%FC Luzern91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Leonardo Bertone
22'
Bung Hua Freimann
Lukas Daschner
29'
38'
Lucas Silva
⚽Lukas Daschner
45+3'
46'
⚽Daniel Mikołajewskiassist: Matteo Di Giusto
46'
🔁Rúben Dantasout: Daniel Mikołajewski
Leon Frokaj
52'
🔁Lukas Daschnerout: Andrin Hunziker
55'
🔁Hugo Vandermerschout: Enoch Owusu
55'
59'
Andrejs Cigaņiks
64'
🔁Sascha Meyerout: Nando Toggenburger
🔁Leon Frokajout: Betim Fazliji
69'
79'
🔁Oscar Kabwitout: Aurelio Oehlers
79'
🔁Lucas Silvaout: Mio Zimmermann
🔁Christian Witzigout: Corsin Konietzke
80'
🔁Jozo Stanićout: Colin Noah Kleine-Bekel
80'
83'
🔁Stefan Kneževićout: Jesper Lofgren
89'
⚽Matteo Di Giustoassist: Aurelio Oehlers
⚽Lukas Görtler (pen)
90+11'
•Lukas Görtler
90+9'
90+7'
Daniel Mikołajewski
90+4'
Mio Zimmermann

Match stats — FC St. Gallen vs FC Luzern

61%Possession39%
24Shots12
11On target3
6Corners9
3.31xG1.37

Goals against chances

FC St. Gallen2 from 3.31 xGless than the chances were worth
FC Luzern2 from 1.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC St. Gallen
  • 1Lawrence Ati ZigiG
  • 74Joel RuizD
  • 4Jozo StanićD
  • 36Chima OkorojiD
  • 28Hugo VandermerschM
  • 16Lukas GörtlerM
  • 10Lukas DaschnerM
  • 20Leon FrokajM
  • 64Mihailo StevanovićM
  • 7Christian WitzigF
  • 14Aliou BaldeF
Substitutes
  • 9Andrin HunzikerF
  • 47Enoch OwusuM
  • 23Betim FazlijiM
  • 3Colin Noah Kleine-BekelD
  • 63Corsin KonietzkeM
  • 25Lukas WatkowiakG
  • 68Mostafa HeydariD
  • 31Diego BesioF
Coach: Enrico Maassen
FC Luzern
  • 1Simon SimoniG
  • 20Pius DornD
  • 13Bung Hua FreimannD
  • 5Stefan KneževićD
  • 22Rúben DantasD
  • 6Leonardo BertoneM
  • 10Lucas SilvaM
  • 16Oscar KabwitM
  • 11Matteo Di GiustoM
  • 14Andrejs CigaņiksM
  • 71Sascha MeyerF
Substitutes
  • 19Daniel MikołajewskiF
  • 15Nando ToggenburgerF
  • 80Mio ZimmermannM
  • 7Aurelio OehlersF
  • 3Jesper LofgrenD
  • 63Raphael RadtkeG
  • 21Loïc LüthiD
  • 34Demir XhemalijaM
  • 27Lars VilligerF
Coach: Jorg Portmann

Form going into FC St. Gallen vs FC Luzern

FC St. Gallen

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Sheriff Tiraspol6 August 2026
  • W3-2away to FC Vaduz2 August 2026
  • L0-5away to Benfica30 July 2026
  • W2-1FC Zurich26 July 2026
  • W2-1Benfica23 July 2026

FC Luzern

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to FC Sion2 August 2026
  • L1-3FC Thun25 July 2026

What these results say

  • FC St. Gallen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC St. Gallen had three goals or more.
  • FC St. Gallen won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4FC St. Gallen137152422+222
9FC Luzern133462128-713

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC St. Gallen vs FC Luzern

  • 12 April 2026FC Luzern 2–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 1 February 2026FC Luzern 2–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 24 August 2025FC St. Gallen 0–1 FC LuzernSuper League
  • 3 April 2025FC Luzern 1–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
  • 2 February 2025FC Luzern 2–0 FC St. GallenSuper League

Leading scorers: FC St. Gallen and FC Luzern

FC St. Gallen

GoalsAssists

  • L. Görtler42
  • A. Hunziker40

FC Luzern

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mikołajewski43
  • M. Di Giusto43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC St. Gallen and FC Luzern drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC St. Gallen at 67% and given a draw 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Lukas Daschner 45+3' for FC St. Gallen, Daniel Mikołajewski 46' for FC Luzern, Matteo Di Giusto 89' for FC Luzern, Lukas Görtler (penalty) 90+11' for FC St. Gallen. On expected goals it finished 3.31–1.37.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.