9 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Moreirense vs SC Braga Primeira Liga prediction & result

Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Moreirense 2-2 SC Braga.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Moreirense, 28% draw, 40% SC Braga — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

SC Braga at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Moreirense0%Draw3%SC Braga97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽F. Navarroassist: Vitor Carvalho
⚽N. Johnassist: A. Duville-Parsemain
8'
18'
Diogo Travassos
Guilherme Liberato
20'
42'
🔁B. Arrey-Mbiout: A. Bajrami
Kevyn Monteiro
45+2'
46'
🔁Travassosout: V. Gomez
57'
🔁M. Dorgelesout: D. Huseinbasic
57'
🔁R. Hortaout: P. Victor
🔁A. Vieiraout: Kiko Bondoso
59'
Nile John
61'
66'
⚽P. Victorassist: D. E. Tiknaz
🔁Rodriout: J. Veloso
67'
🔁N. Johnout: M. Stjepanovic
75'
🔁Guilherme Liberatoout: Yan Maranhao
75'
Gilberto Batista
78'
90+4'
🔁D. E. Tiknazout: J. Moutinho
⚽J. Veloso
90'

Match stats — Moreirense vs SC Braga

36%Possession64%
7Shots12
3On target4
4Corners2
0.21xG0.94

Goals against chances

Moreirense2 from 0.21 xGmore than the chances were worth
SC Braga2 from 0.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Moreirense 4-3-3
  • 13A. FerreiraG
  • 2L. SantosD
  • 66G. BatistaD
  • 4Kevyn MonteiroD
  • 27KikoD
  • 23N. JohnM
  • 65Guilherme Liberato
  • 21RodriM
  • 89A. VieiraF
  • 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
  • 11LandersonF
Substitutes
  • 1AranhaG
  • 10Kiko BondosoF
  • 77K. MottohF
  • 25A. AssisM
  • 30J. GowerM
  • 20J. VelosoM
  • 8M. StjepanovicM
  • 17A. MartinezD
  • 99Yan MaranhaoF
Coach: Vasco Costa
SC Braga 3-4-3
  • 31BernardoG
  • 14G. LagerbielkeD
  • 6Vitor CarvalhoD
  • 26B. Arrey-MbiD
  • 7TravassosM
  • 29GorbyM
  • 34D. E. TiknazM
  • 11Gabriel SilvaM
  • 20M. DorgelesF
  • 9F. NavarroF
  • 21R. HortaF
Substitutes
  • 78J. CarvalhoG
  • 12T. SaG
  • 8J. MoutinhoM
  • 23D. HuseinbasicM
  • 44A. BajramiD
  • 5L. LeloD
  • 10P. VictorF
  • 22Sergio BarciaD
  • 77G. MartinezF
Coach: Carlos Vicens

Form going into Moreirense vs SC Braga

Moreirense

No earlier matches on record this season.

SC Braga

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Dinamo Minsk6 August 2026
  • W4-0Železničar Pančevo30 July 2026
  • W1-0away to Železničar Pančevo22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Moreirense114251318-514
8SC Braga115241311+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Moreirense vs SC Braga

  • 4 April 2026Moreirense 0–1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 9 November 2025SC Braga 2–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
  • 16 July 2025SC Braga 2–0 MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 February 2025Moreirense 1–2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
  • 25 August 2024SC Braga 3–1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga

The full Moreirense vs SC Braga record →

Leading scorers: Moreirense and SC Braga

Moreirense

GoalsAssists

  • N. John30

SC Braga

GoalsAssists

  • Pau Victor51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Moreirense and SC Braga drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for SC Braga at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: F. Navarro 7' for SC Braga, N. John 8' for Moreirense, P. Victor 66' for SC Braga, J. Veloso 90' for Moreirense. On expected goals it finished 0.21–0.94.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.