Benfica
vs
Academico Viseu
The model makes it 76% Benfica, 15% draw, 9% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 1.32, 6.67 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Benfica 2.76, Academico Viseu 0.90.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Benfica carry a model rating of 7.11 against 6.71 for Academico Viseu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Benfica L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.76 goals for Benfica and 0.90 for Academico Viseu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benfica rate 1.59 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Academico Viseu rate 0.65 and 0.92.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Benfica against 0.9 for Academico Viseu. Benfica's attack/defence rating is 1.59/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/0.92 for Academico Viseu.