GIL Vicente
vs
Rio Ave
The model makes it 51% GIL Vicente, 23% draw, 26% Rio Ave — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: GIL Vicente 1.92, Rio Ave 1.30.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave
- 3 May 2026Rio Ave 0–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 20 December 2025GIL Vicente 2–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 2 August 2025GIL Vicente 3–1 Rio AveFriendlies Clubs
- 16 May 2025Rio Ave 1–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 6 January 2025GIL Vicente 1–1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 24 July 2024GIL Vicente 2–1 Rio AveFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
GIL Vicente carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.66 for Rio Ave. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for GIL Vicente and 1.30 for Rio Ave. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GIL Vicente rate 0.93 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rio Ave rate 0.73 and 1.09.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GIL Vicente the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for GIL Vicente against 1.3 for Rio Ave. GIL Vicente's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.09 for Rio Ave.