9 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave Primeira Liga prediction & result

Barcelos
Full time1 – 0

Final score: GIL Vicente 1-0 Rio Ave.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% GIL Vicente, 23% draw, 25% Rio Ave — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

GIL Vicente at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

GIL Vicente97%Draw3%Rio Ave0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Weversonout: D. Moreira
19'
26'
🔁Ryan Guilhermeout: T. Monteiro
Facundo Cáseres
32'
45+4'
Nelson Abbey
47'
Andreas Ndoj
50'
🔁R. Galcikout: T. Nikitscher
🔁F. Caseresout: Ze Carlos
65'
🔁out: J. Silva
65'
🔁A. Lausenout: H. Hernandez
76'
🔁G. Pinto Martinsout: T. Toure
77'
82'
🔁J. Blesaout: M. Vrousai
83'
🔁D. Nascimentoout: J. Brabec
83'
🔁Diogo Bezerraout: D. Spikic
85'
Jakub Brabec
⚽H. Hernandez (pen)
87'
90+1'
Georgios Liavas

Match stats — GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave

64%Possession36%
12Shots6
4On target2
5Corners2
1.48xG0.31

Goals against chances

GIL Vicente1 from 1.48 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rio Ave0 from 0.31 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

GIL Vicente 4-2-3-1
  • 30LucaoG
  • 47R. EsgaioD
  • 4M. ElimbiD
  • 39J. BuatuD
  • 26WeversonD
  • 12A. LausenM
  • 5F. CaseresM
  • 11J. FernandesM
  • 10S. GarciaM
  • 20G. Pinto MartinsM
  • 29Carlos EduardoF
Substitutes
  • 1A. PicornellG
  • 44T. Ferreira
  • 6Ze CarlosM
  • 99M. KabaF
  • 3A. EspigaresD
  • 45D. MoreiraD
  • 27A. MoreiraF
  • 2J. SilvaD
  • 23H. HernandezF
Coach: Luis Pinto
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
  • 99E. van der GouwG
  • 54G. LiavasD
  • 23F. PetrassoD
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 6N. AbbeyD
  • 90D. NascimentoM
  • 5A. NtoiM
  • 30R. Galcik
  • 8Ryan GuilhermeM
  • 7Diogo Bezerra
  • 11J. BlesaF
Substitutes
  • 22K. ChamorroG
  • 14J. BrabecD
  • 17M. VrousaiF
  • 44T. NikitscherM
  • 25Rafael LobatoF
  • 77D. SpikicF
  • 9T. MonteiroF
  • 63J. LombotoD
  • 79M. PatricioF
Coach: Sotiris Sylaidopoulos

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7GIL Vicente11533108+218
17Rio Ave11218924-157

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave

  • 3 May 2026Rio Ave 0–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • 20 December 2025GIL Vicente 2–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 2 August 2025GIL Vicente 3–1 Rio AveFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 May 2025Rio Ave 1–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • 6 January 2025GIL Vicente 1–1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

The full GIL Vicente vs Rio Ave record →

The result against the call

GIL Vicente beat Rio Ave 1–0. The model had made a win for GIL Vicente its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: H. Hernandez (penalty) 87' for GIL Vicente. Sent off: Andreas Ndoj (Rio Ave) 47'. On expected goals it finished 1.48–0.31.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.