FC Porto vs Alverca Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Porto 2-0 Alverca.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% FC Porto, 21% draw, 16% Alverca — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Porto at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Porto vs Alverca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99D. CostaG
- 52M. FernandesD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 12ZaiduD
- 8V. FroholdtM
- 22A. VarelaM
- 10G. VeigaM
- 7William GomesF
- 19Andre SilvaF
- 11PepêF
- 24J. CostaG
- 50J. AfonsoG
- 6S. EustaquioM
- 18N. PerezD
- 21D. PrpicD
- 27D. GulF
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 74F. MouraD
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 4Y. BojangD
- 33B. MeupiyouD
- 2N. TouaiziM
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 6D. GuiM
- 12I. JamesM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 9V. SemedoF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 91Jhonatan LuizG
- 21S. GomezD
- 19M. EssimiF
- 17S. J. MerhegF
- 55ChissumbaD
- 20D. SpencerD
- 11C. NuozziF
- 8V. MoreiraM
- 30A. SoumareM
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 5 | +22 | 33 |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Porto vs Alverca
- 2 May 2026FC Porto 1–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 22 December 2025Alverca 0–3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: FC Porto and Alverca
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Borja Sainz61
- Gabri Veiga54
- André Silva42
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Porto beat Alverca 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for FC Porto at 63%. The goals: Andre Silva (penalty) 9' for FC Porto, G. Veiga (penalty) 44' for FC Porto. On expected goals it finished 2.59–1.66.