FC Porto
vs
Alverca
The model makes it 63% FC Porto, 21% draw, 16% Alverca — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: FC Porto 2.07, Alverca 0.94.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: FC Porto vs Alverca
- 2 May 2026FC Porto 1–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 22 December 2025Alverca 0–3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
The two sides
FC Porto carry a model rating of 7.11 against 6.87 for Alverca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for FC Porto and 0.94 for Alverca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Porto rate 1.23 in attack and 0.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alverca rate 0.92 and 0.89.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for FC Porto against 0.94 for Alverca. FC Porto's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.89 for Alverca.