Energie Cottbus
vs
Hannover 96
The model makes it 11% Energie Cottbus, 14% draw, 75% Hannover 96 — fair odds of 9.09, 7.14 and 1.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-3 (8%).
Expected goals: Energie Cottbus 1.28, Hannover 96 3.22.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Energie Cottbus vs Hannover 96
- 16 August 2025Energie Cottbus 1–0 Hannover 96DFB Pokal
A clear gap in the ratings
Energie Cottbus carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.92 for Hannover 96. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Energie Cottbus and 3.22 for Hannover 96. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Energie Cottbus rate 0.70 in attack and 2.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hannover 96 rate 1.11 and 0.97.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-3 (8%), 1-2 (7%), 1-4 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hannover 96 the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Energie Cottbus against 3.22 for Hannover 96. Energie Cottbus's attack/defence rating is 0.7/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/0.97 for Hannover 96.