1. FC Nürnberg
vs
Dynamo Dresden
The model makes it 52% 1. FC Nürnberg, 24% draw, 24% Dynamo Dresden — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.86, Dynamo Dresden 1.22.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden
- 11 April 20261. FC Nürnberg 0–2 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 7 November 2025Dynamo Dresden 1–2 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 20 March 2022FC Nurnberg 1–1 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 17 October 2021Dynamo Dresden 0–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
- 20 December 2019FC Nurnberg 2–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 27 July 2019Dynamo Dresden 0–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Nürnberg carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.91 for Dynamo Dresden. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.22 for Dynamo Dresden. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Nürnberg rate 1.17 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dynamo Dresden rate 0.93 and 0.84.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Nürnberg the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.22 for Dynamo Dresden. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/0.84 for Dynamo Dresden.