9 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Voith-Arena, Heidenheim
Referee: Florian Lechner, Germany
Full time0 – 0

Final score: 1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% 1. FC Heidenheim, 27% draw, 24% 1. FC Kaiserslautern — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Heidenheim at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Heidenheim5%Draw92%1. FC Kaiserslautern3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Mikkel Kaufmannout: Budu Zivzivadze
45'
59'
🔁Maxwell Gyamfiout: Alex Murphy
🔁Christian Contehout: Alessandro Vogt
64'
64'
🔁Mergim Berishaout: Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta
64'
🔁Marlon Ritterout: Ibrahim Kanate
80'
🔁Jacob Rasmussenout: Leon Reid Robinson
80'
🔁Naatan Skyttäout: Erencan Yardimci
🔁Paul Hennrichout: Yannik Wagner
80'

Match stats — 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

54%Possession46%
13Shots16
4On target3
7Corners8
0.86xG1.38

Goals against chances

1. FC Heidenheim0 from 0.86 xGless than the chances were worth
1. FC Kaiserslautern0 from 1.38 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Heidenheim 4-4-2
  • 33T. DähneG
  • 22O. MhamdiD
  • 6P. MainkaD
  • 19J. FöhrenbachD
  • 27M. HeuleD
  • 8P. HennrichM
  • 3J. SchöppnerM
  • 16J. NiehuesM
  • 10C. ContehM
  • 29M. KaufmannF
  • 17M. HonsakF
Substitutes
  • 41M. ZrilicM
  • 11B. ZivzivadzeF
  • 38Y. WagnerF
  • 18A. VogtF
  • 4T. SierslebenD
  • 23L. PaqaradaD
  • 28Adam KölleD
  • 20L. KerberM
  • 1Frank FellerG
Coach: F. Schmidt
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. KrahlG
  • 33J. ElvediD
  • 4M. GyamfiD
  • 14J. RasmussenD
  • 26P. JolyM
  • 6F. KunzeM
  • 8S. ŞahinM
  • 22Mika HaasM
  • 15N. SkyttäM
  • 7M. RitterM
  • 20M. BerishaF
Substitutes
  • 21M. SauerM
  • 37Leon RobinsonM
  • 3A. MurphyD
  • 45M. LukovićF
  • 11I. KanateF
  • 2S. AstaD
  • 39T. Fidjeu-TazemetaM
  • 17E. YardımcıF
  • 34Y. OnohiolG
Coach: T. Lieberknecht

Form going into 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

1. FC Heidenheim

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld20 September 2026
  • W1-0Holstein Kiel13 September 2026
  • W1-0away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 September 2026
  • W5-3Dynamo Dresden29 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Hertha BSC15 August 2026

1. FC Kaiserslautern

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Eintracht Braunschweig19 September 2026
  • L0-3away to 1. FC Magdeburg12 September 2026
  • W3-0SV Darmstadt 985 September 2026
  • W2-1away to FC St. Pauli30 August 2026
  • D0-0Karlsruher SC15 August 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Heidenheim scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
71. FC Heidenheim114431920-116
31. FC Kaiserslautern11632107+321

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

  • 1 April 2023FC Kaiserslautern 2–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 18 September 2022FC Heidenheim 2–2 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 6 May 2018FC Kaiserslautern 1–0 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 1 December 2017FC Heidenheim 3–2 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 12 March 2017FC Kaiserslautern 1–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 24 September 2016FC Heidenheim 3–0 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga

The result against the call

1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Kaiserslautern drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Heidenheim at 49% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.86–1.38.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1. FC Heidenheim a 64.9% chance to finish in the top four: 69.4% after a win, 64.6% after a draw, 57.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 64.6%.

For 1. FC Kaiserslautern the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 21.1% going in: 26.9% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 18.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 19.9%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on 1. FC Heidenheim v 1. FC Kaiserslautern has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is 1. FC Heidenheim's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. 1. FC Heidenheim win49%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. 1. FC Kaiserslautern win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.