1. FC Heidenheim
vs
1. FC Kaiserslautern
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Heidenheim 1–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern
The model makes it 45% 1. FC Heidenheim, 29% draw, 26% 1. FC Kaiserslautern — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.61, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0.97.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 45% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Heidenheim
- D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld20 September 2026
- W1-0Holstein Kiel13 September 2026
- W1-0away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 September 2026
- W5-3Dynamo Dresden29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Hertha BSC15 August 2026
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- W1-0Eintracht Braunschweig19 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Magdeburg12 September 2026
- W3-0SV Darmstadt 985 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC St. Pauli30 August 2026
- D0-0Karlsruher SC15 August 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Heidenheim scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
- 1 April 2023FC Kaiserslautern 2–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 18 September 2022FC Heidenheim 2–2 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 6 May 2018FC Kaiserslautern 1–0 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 1 December 2017FC Heidenheim 3–2 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 12 March 2017FC Kaiserslautern 1–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 24 September 2016FC Heidenheim 3–0 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Heidenheim
- J. Schöppner3 goals
- B. Zivzivadze3 goals
1. FC Kaiserslautern
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Heidenheim carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.56 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0.97 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Heidenheim rate 0.85 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Kaiserslautern rate 0.58 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 3.5% chance of the title and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Heidenheim the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim against 0.97 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.1 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.