Montpellier
vs
Metz
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Montpellier 1–0 Metz
The model makes it 49% Montpellier, 28% draw, 23% Metz — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Montpellier 1.56, Metz 0.90.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Edge to Montpellier: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Montpellier's rating is built from 43 Ligue 2 matches and Metz's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- Montpellier are 2nd on 18 points from 9 games; Metz are 7th on 13 points from 9 games — Ligue 2.
- Montpellier are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Rodez.
- Metz have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Sochaux.
- Last 6 meetings: Montpellier 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 January 2026, ended Metz 0–4 Montpellier.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Montpellier vs Metz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Montpellier at 49% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Montpellier vs Metz
Montpellier
Ligue 2
- W3-0away to Rodez19 October 2026
- W2-0Grenoble9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Reims18 September 2026
- W1-0PAU11 September 2026
- L1-3away to Saint Etienne5 September 2026
Metz
Ligue 2
- W3-2Sochaux17 October 2026
- L2-4away to Dijon12 October 2026
- D2-2Saint Etienne19 September 2026
- L0-1away to RED Star FC 9314 September 2026
- W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
What these results say
- Montpellier scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Metz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Metz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Metz had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Montpellier | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 18 |
| 7 | Metz | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Montpellier vs Metz
- 11 January 2026Metz 0–4 MontpellierCoupe de France
- 18 February 2024Montpellier 3–0 MetzLigue 1
- 17 December 2023Metz 0–1 MontpellierLigue 1
- 1 May 2022Montpellier 2–2 MetzLigue 1
- 1 December 2021Metz 1–3 MontpellierLigue 1
- 31 July 2021Metz 1–0 MontpellierFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Montpellier and Metz
Montpellier
GoalsAssists
- N. Pays30
Metz
GoalsAssists
- P. Fall70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Montpellier carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.48 for Metz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Montpellier and 0.90 for Metz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Montpellier rate 0.64 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Metz rate 0.77 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Montpellier a 13.4% chance of the title and Metz 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Montpellier the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Montpellier against 0.90 for Metz. Montpellier's attack/defence rating is 0.64/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.65 for Metz.
How the model reaches 49% for Montpellier to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Montpellier to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Montpellier's ratings take away 11 points and Metz's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Montpellier's ratings30%−11
- Metz's ratings49%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Montpellier at home · Metz away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MontpellierMetz
Montpellier are 2nd after 9 Ligue 2 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Metz are 7th after 9 (between 2nd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Montpellier 9, Metz 9.
Metz score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Montpellier have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Montpellier
- at Laval20 Nov · Ligue 2win 49%
- vs Nantes4 Dec · Ligue 2win 56%
- at Sochaux11 Dec · Ligue 2win 41%
Metz
- vs Boulogne20 Nov · Ligue 2win 45%
- at Clermont Foot4 Dec · Ligue 2win 37%
- vs Reims11 Dec · Ligue 2win 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.