PAU
vs
Nantes
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: PAU 2–1 Nantes
The model makes it 46% PAU, 26% draw, 28% Nantes — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: PAU 1.80, Nantes 1.29.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. PAU's rating is built from 43 Ligue 2 matches and Nantes's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- PAU are 6th on 14 points from 9 games; Nantes are 14th on 8 points from 9 games — Ligue 2.
- PAU are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Guingamp.
- Nantes have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Dunkerque.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PAU vs Nantes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PAU at 46% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into PAU vs Nantes
PAU
Ligue 2
- W2-1away to Guingamp16 October 2026
- W3-2Laval9 October 2026
- W2-0Dunkerque18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Montpellier11 September 2026
- D1-1Sochaux4 September 2026
Nantes
Ligue 2
- L2-3Dunkerque17 October 2026
- D0-0Reims10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Boulogne19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sochaux12 September 2026
- W1-0Nancy7 September 2026
What these results say
- PAU scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | PAU | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 |
| 14 | Nantes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: PAU vs Nantes
- 5 January 2024PAU 1–4 NantesCoupe de France
Leading scorers: PAU and Nantes
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye40
Nantes
GoalsAssists
- T. Robinet32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
PAU carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.31 for Nantes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for PAU and 1.29 for Nantes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PAU rate 0.67 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nantes rate 0.62 and 1.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PAU a 0.4% chance of the title and Nantes 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PAU the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for PAU against 1.29 for Nantes. PAU's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.82 for Nantes.
How the model reaches 46% for PAU to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for PAU to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, PAU's ratings take away 22 points and Nantes's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- PAU's ratings19%−22
- Nantes's ratings46%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
PAU at home · Nantes away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PAUNantes
PAU are 6th after 9 Ligue 2 matches (between 6th and 17th so far); Nantes are 14th after 9 (between 13th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: PAU 9, Nantes 9.
Nantes score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); PAU have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
PAU
- at RED Star FC 9320 Nov · Ligue 2win 27%
- at Boulogne4 Dec · Ligue 2win 32%
- vs Saint Etienne11 Dec · Ligue 2win 25%
Nantes
- vs Grenoble20 Nov · Ligue 2win 40%
- at Montpellier4 Dec · Ligue 2win 18%
- vs Annecy11 Dec · Ligue 2win 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.