Dunkerque
vs
Metz
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Dunkerque 1–2 Metz
The model makes it 34% Dunkerque, 27% draw, 39% Metz — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.40, Metz 1.55.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Metz: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Dunkerque are 12th on 8 points from 8 games; Metz are 10th on 10 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Dunkerque have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Annecy.
- Metz are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Dijon.
- Last 4 meetings: Metz 4 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2025, ended Metz 1–0 Dunkerque.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dunkerque vs Metz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Metz at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dunkerque vs Metz
Dunkerque
- L0-1Annecy9 October 2026
- L0-2away to PAU18 September 2026
- W2-1Saint Etienne12 September 2026
- D1-1Clermont Foot4 September 2026
- L0-2away to Nancy28 August 2026
Metz
- L2-4away to Dijon12 October 2026
- D2-2Saint Etienne19 September 2026
- L0-1away to RED Star FC 9314 September 2026
- W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
What these results say
- Dunkerque conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunkerque failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dunkerque had two goals or fewer.
- Metz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Metz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Metz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Dunkerque | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Metz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dunkerque
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
Metz
Chance to finish in the top four · 33% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Metz
- 17 May 2025Metz 1–0 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 15 March 2025Dunkerque 2–3 MetzLigue 2
- 9 December 2024Metz 2–0 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 7 January 2018Dunkerque 2–4 MetzCoupe de France
Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Metz
Dunkerque
GoalsAssists
- E. Prutsev21
- S. Keita21
Metz
GoalsAssists
- P. Fall70
- J. Deminguet23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dunkerque carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.56 for Metz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Dunkerque and 1.55 for Metz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunkerque rate 0.70 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Metz rate 0.75 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dunkerque a 0.4% chance of the title and Metz 6.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Metz the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Dunkerque against 1.55 for Metz. Dunkerque's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.35 for Metz.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dunkerque at home · Metz away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Dunkerque 8, Metz 8.
Dunkerque score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Metz have let in 3 there.
Metz score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Dunkerque have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dunkerque
- at Rodez30 Oct · Ligue 2win 30%
- vs Guingamp6 Nov · Ligue 2win 46%
- at Sochaux20 Nov · Ligue 2win 31%
- vs RED Star FC 934 Dec · Ligue 2win 37%
Metz
- vs PAU30 Oct · Ligue 2win 53%
- at Montpellier6 Nov · Ligue 2win 29%
- vs Boulogne20 Nov · Ligue 2win 52%
- at Clermont Foot4 Dec · Ligue 2win 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.