PAU
vs
Grenoble
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: PAU 1–0 Grenoble
The model makes it 42% PAU, 28% draw, 30% Grenoble — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: PAU 1.49, Grenoble 1.16.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- PAU are 8th on 11 points from 8 games; Grenoble are 14th on 8 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- PAU have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Laval.
- Grenoble have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Montpellier.
- Last 6 meetings: PAU 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 23 January 2026, ended PAU 2–2 Grenoble.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PAU vs Grenoble
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PAU at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into PAU vs Grenoble
PAU
- W3-2Laval9 October 2026
- W2-0Dunkerque18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Montpellier11 September 2026
- D1-1Sochaux4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Rodez28 August 2026
Grenoble
- L0-2away to Montpellier9 October 2026
- D1-1Clermont Foot18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rodez11 September 2026
- L1-2Annecy4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Laval28 August 2026
What these results say
- PAU scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Grenoble scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | PAU | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 14 | Grenoble | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
PAU
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
Grenoble
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: PAU vs Grenoble
- 23 January 2026PAU 2–2 GrenobleLigue 2
- 17 October 2025Grenoble 1–1 PAULigue 2
- 28 February 2025PAU 1–0 GrenobleLigue 2
- 30 August 2024Grenoble 1–1 PAULigue 2
- 24 February 2024Grenoble 0–1 PAULigue 2
- 28 October 2023PAU 3–2 GrenobleLigue 2
Leading scorers: PAU and Grenoble
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye40
Grenoble
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
PAU carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.34 for Grenoble. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for PAU and 1.16 for Grenoble. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PAU rate 0.67 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Grenoble rate 0.54 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PAU a 0.3% chance of the title and Grenoble 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PAU the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for PAU against 1.16 for Grenoble. PAU's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.5 for Grenoble.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
PAU at home · Grenoble away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PAUGrenoble
PAU are 7th after 8 Ligue 2 matches (between 7th and 17th so far); Grenoble are 13th after 8 (between 9th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: PAU 8, Grenoble 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
PAU
- at Metz30 Oct · Ligue 2win 22%
- vs Nantes6 Nov · Ligue 2win 28%
- at RED Star FC 9320 Nov · Ligue 2win 25%
- at Boulogne4 Dec · Ligue 2win 33%
Grenoble
- vs Dijon30 Oct · Ligue 2win 33%
- vs Reims6 Nov · Ligue 2win 28%
- at Nantes20 Nov · Ligue 2win 19%
- vs Guingamp4 Dec · Ligue 2win 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.