Dijon
vs
RED Star FC 93
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Dijon 2–1 RED Star FC 93
The model makes it 42% Dijon, 25% draw, 33% RED Star FC 93 — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dijon 1.79, RED Star FC 93 1.55.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Dijon's rating is built from 9 Ligue 2 matches and RED Star FC 93's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- Dijon are 9th on 12 points from 9 games; RED Star FC 93 are 4th on 17 points from 9 games — Ligue 2.
- Dijon have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Reims.
- RED Star FC 93 have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Saint Etienne.
- Last 4 meetings: Dijon 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2024, ended RED Star FC 93 0–2 Dijon.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dijon vs RED Star FC 93
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dijon at 42% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dijon vs RED Star FC 93
Dijon
Ligue 2
- L2-4away to Reims16 October 2026
- W4-2Metz12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Annecy18 September 2026
- W3-2Laval11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne4 September 2026
RED Star FC 93
Ligue 2
- L0-1Saint Etienne17 October 2026
- W3-2away to Clermont Foot10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Guingamp19 September 2026
- W1-0Metz14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Laval4 September 2026
What these results say
- Dijon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dijon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Dijon.
- RED Star FC 93 won 4 of these 5 matches.
- RED Star FC 93 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- RED Star FC 93 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Dijon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | RED Star FC 93 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dijon vs RED Star FC 93
- 19 April 2024RED Star FC 93 0–2 DijonLigue 3
- 24 November 2023Dijon 3–1 RED Star FC 93Ligue 3
- 6 May 2016RED Star FC 93 3–2 DijonLigue 2
- 18 December 2015Dijon 0–0 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
Leading scorers: Dijon and RED Star FC 93
Dijon
GoalsAssists
- Júlio Tavares41
- Samy Olivier Chouchane30
RED Star FC 93
GoalsAssists
- D. Durand50
- J. Ikanga A Ngele42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dijon carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.49 for RED Star FC 93. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Dijon and 1.55 for RED Star FC 93. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dijon rate 0.85 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; RED Star FC 93 rate 0.69 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour RED Star FC 93, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dijon a 0.9% chance of the title and RED Star FC 93 2.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dijon the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Dijon against 1.55 for RED Star FC 93. Dijon's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.42 for RED Star FC 93.
How the model reaches 42% for Dijon to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dijon to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Dijon's ratings take away 19 points and RED Star FC 93's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Dijon's ratings22%−19
- RED Star FC 93's ratings42%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dijon at home · RED Star FC 93 away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
DijonRED Star FC 93
Dijon are 9th after 9 Ligue 2 matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); RED Star FC 93 are 4th after 9 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Dijon 9, RED Star FC 93 9.
Dijon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); RED Star FC 93 have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dijon
- at Nancy20 Nov · Ligue 2win 34%
- vs Sochaux4 Dec · Ligue 2win 46%
- at Guingamp11 Dec · Ligue 2win 40%
RED Star FC 93
- vs PAU20 Nov · Ligue 2win 47%
- at Dunkerque4 Dec · Ligue 2win 35%
- vs Grenoble11 Dec · Ligue 2win 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.