Clermont Foot
vs
Guingamp
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Clermont Foot 1–0 Guingamp
The model makes it 41% Clermont Foot, 29% draw, 30% Guingamp — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Clermont Foot 1.38, Guingamp 1.08.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Clermont Foot are 17th on 6 points from 8 games; Guingamp are 11th on 8 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Clermont Foot have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to RED Star FC 93.
- Guingamp have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Nancy.
- Last 6 meetings: Clermont Foot 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Clermont Foot 1–0 Guingamp.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Clermont Foot vs Guingamp
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Clermont Foot at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Clermont Foot vs Guingamp
Clermont Foot
- L2-3RED Star FC 9310 October 2026
- D1-1away to Grenoble18 September 2026
- D0-0Boulogne11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dunkerque4 September 2026
- D0-0Sochaux28 August 2026
Guingamp
- L0-1away to Nancy9 October 2026
- L1-3RED Star FC 9319 September 2026
- W2-1Annecy12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Reims5 September 2026
- D3-3Nantes29 August 2026
What these results say
- Clermont Foot did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Clermont Foot had two goals or fewer.
- Guingamp conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Clermont Foot
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 39% today
Guingamp
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
From our Ligue 2 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Clermont Foot vs Guingamp
- 9 May 2026Clermont Foot 1–0 GuingampLigue 2
- 24 October 2025Guingamp 0–1 Clermont FootLigue 2
- 7 March 2025Guingamp 3–1 Clermont FootLigue 2
- 5 October 2024Clermont Foot 4–1 GuingampLigue 2
- 2 March 2021Guingamp 0–5 Clermont FootLigue 2
- 7 November 2020Clermont Foot 0–0 GuingampLigue 2
Leading scorers: Clermont Foot and Guingamp
Clermont Foot
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Guingamp
GoalsAssists
- B. Bokangu40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Clermont Foot carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.34 for Guingamp. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Clermont Foot and 1.08 for Guingamp. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Clermont Foot rate 0.55 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guingamp rate 0.61 and 1.70.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Guingamp, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Clermont Foot a 0% chance of the title and Guingamp 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Clermont Foot the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Clermont Foot against 1.08 for Guingamp. Clermont Foot's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.7 for Guingamp.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Clermont Foot at home · Guingamp away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Clermont Foot 8, Guingamp 8.
Clermont Foot score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Guingamp have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Clermont Foot
- at Nantes30 Oct · Ligue 2win 20%
- vs Rodez6 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
- at Annecy20 Nov · Ligue 2win 24%
- vs Metz4 Dec · Ligue 2win 31%
Guingamp
- vs Saint Etienne31 Oct · Ligue 2win 28%
- at Dunkerque6 Nov · Ligue 2win 28%
- vs Rodez20 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
- at Grenoble4 Dec · Ligue 2win 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.