Saint Etienne
vs
Laval
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Saint Etienne 2–0 Laval
The model makes it 67% Saint Etienne, 20% draw, 13% Laval — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Saint Etienne 2.51, Laval 0.87.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,453 settled matches.
One-sided: Saint Etienne are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Saint Etienne's rating is built from 44 Ligue 2 matches and Laval's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- Saint Etienne are top on 22 points from 9 games; Laval are bottom on 6 points from 9 games — Ligue 2.
- Saint Etienne are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to RED Star FC 93.
- Laval have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Clermont Foot.
- Last 6 meetings: Saint Etienne 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Saint Etienne 2–1 Laval.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Saint Etienne vs Laval
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Saint Etienne at 67% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 358 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.6%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Saint Etienne vs Laval
Saint Etienne
Ligue 2
- W1-0away to RED Star FC 9317 October 2026
- W2-0Rodez10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Metz19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dunkerque12 September 2026
- W3-1Montpellier5 September 2026
Laval
Ligue 2
- D3-3Clermont Foot16 October 2026
- L2-3away to PAU9 October 2026
- D1-1Sochaux18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Dijon11 September 2026
- L1-2RED Star FC 934 September 2026
What these results say
- Saint Etienne scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Laval did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Laval scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Laval conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 22 |
| 18 | Laval | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Saint Etienne vs Laval
- 21 February 2026Saint Etienne 2–1 LavalLigue 2
- 9 August 2025Laval 3–3 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 13 January 2024Saint Etienne 0–0 LavalLigue 2
- 23 October 2023Laval 0–1 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 13 May 2023Laval 2–1 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 10 January 2023Saint Etienne 1–0 LavalLigue 2
Leading scorers: Saint Etienne and Laval
Saint Etienne
GoalsAssists
- I. Cardona54
- A. Boakye53
- T. Ballo52
Laval
GoalsAssists
- M. Houdayer30
- A. Kanté30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Saint Etienne carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.28 for Laval. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.51 goals for Saint Etienne and 0.87 for Laval. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Saint Etienne rate 0.89 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Laval rate 0.61 and 1.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Saint Etienne a 66.5% chance of the title and Laval 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Saint Etienne the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Saint Etienne against 0.87 for Laval. Saint Etienne's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.91 for Laval.
How the model reaches 67% for Saint Etienne to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Saint Etienne to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Saint Etienne's ratings take away 7 points and Laval's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Saint Etienne's ratings34%−7
- Laval's ratings67%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Saint Etienne at home · Laval away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Saint EtienneLaval
Saint Etienne are 1st after 9 Ligue 2 matches (between 1st and 1st so far); Laval are 18th after 9 (between 8th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Saint Etienne 9, Laval 9.
Laval score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Saint Etienne have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Saint Etienne
- at Reims20 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
- vs Nancy4 Dec · Ligue 2win 56%
- at PAU11 Dec · Ligue 2win 50%
Laval
- vs Montpellier20 Nov · Ligue 2win 23%
- at Annecy4 Dec · Ligue 2win 22%
- vs Dunkerque11 Dec · Ligue 2win 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.