Nancy
vs
Sochaux
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Nancy 1–0 Sochaux
The model makes it 41% Nancy, 31% draw, 28% Sochaux — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Nancy 1.21, Sochaux 0.89.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Nancy's rating is built from 43 Ligue 2 matches and Sochaux's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- Nancy are 5th on 16 points from 9 games; Sochaux are 11th on 11 points from 9 games — Ligue 2.
- Nancy are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Annecy.
- Sochaux are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Metz.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2025, ended Nancy 1–0 Sochaux.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nancy vs Sochaux
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nancy at 41% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nancy vs Sochaux
Nancy
Ligue 2
- W2-1away to Annecy16 October 2026
- W1-0Guingamp9 October 2026
- W4-3away to Rodez18 September 2026
- L1-2Reims11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Nantes7 September 2026
Sochaux
Ligue 2
- L2-3away to Metz17 October 2026
- D1-1Boulogne9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Laval18 September 2026
- W1-0Nantes12 September 2026
- D1-1away to PAU4 September 2026
What these results say
- Nancy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nancy conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sochaux scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sochaux failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sochaux conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nancy | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 16 |
| 11 | Sochaux | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nancy vs Sochaux
- 14 February 2025Nancy 1–0 SochauxLigue 3
- 13 September 2024Sochaux 2–3 NancyLigue 3
- 8 April 2024Sochaux 4–1 NancyLigue 3
- 3 November 2023Nancy 1–1 SochauxLigue 3
- 9 April 2022Sochaux 1–0 NancyLigue 2
- 30 October 2021Nancy 0–0 SochauxLigue 2
Leading scorers: Nancy and Sochaux
Nancy
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Sochaux
GoalsAssists
- B. Gomel30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nancy carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.39 for Sochaux. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Nancy and 0.89 for Sochaux. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nancy rate 0.62 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sochaux rate 0.50 and 1.32.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nancy a 1.1% chance of the title and Sochaux 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nancy the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Nancy against 0.89 for Sochaux. Nancy's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.32 for Sochaux.
How the model reaches 41% for Nancy to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nancy to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Nancy's ratings take away 20 points and Sochaux's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Nancy's ratings21%−20
- Sochaux's ratings41%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nancy at home · Sochaux away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NancySochaux
Nancy are 5th after 9 Ligue 2 matches (between 2nd and 15th so far); Sochaux are 11th after 9 (between 6th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Nancy 9, Sochaux 9.
Sochaux score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Nancy have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Nancy
- vs Dijon20 Nov · Ligue 2win 40%
- at Saint Etienne4 Dec · Ligue 2win 19%
- vs Clermont Foot11 Dec · Ligue 2win 42%
Sochaux
- vs Dunkerque20 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
- at Dijon4 Dec · Ligue 2win 27%
- vs Montpellier11 Dec · Ligue 2win 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.