Dunkerque
vs
Guingamp
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Dunkerque 2–1 Guingamp
The model makes it 47% Dunkerque, 26% draw, 27% Guingamp — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.79, Guingamp 1.22.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Dunkerque's rating is built from 43 Ligue 2 matches and Guingamp's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 700 matches.
Key facts
- Dunkerque are 10th on 11 points from 9 games; Guingamp are 13th on 8 points from 9 games — Ligue 2.
- Dunkerque have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Nantes.
- Guingamp are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to PAU.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended Dunkerque 0–0 Guingamp.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dunkerque vs Guingamp
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunkerque at 47% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dunkerque vs Guingamp
Dunkerque
Ligue 2
- W3-2away to Nantes17 October 2026
- L0-1Annecy9 October 2026
- L0-2away to PAU18 September 2026
- W2-1Saint Etienne12 September 2026
- D1-1Clermont Foot4 September 2026
Guingamp
Ligue 2
- L1-2PAU16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nancy9 October 2026
- L1-3RED Star FC 9319 September 2026
- W2-1Annecy12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Reims5 September 2026
What these results say
- Dunkerque conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Dunkerque | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Guingamp | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Guingamp
- 6 February 2026Dunkerque 0–0 GuingampLigue 2
- 23 September 2025Guingamp 2–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 14 May 2025Dunkerque 1–0 GuingampLigue 2
- 7 April 2025Dunkerque 3–1 GuingampLigue 2
- 4 January 2025Guingamp 1–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 13 April 2024Dunkerque 0–1 GuingampLigue 2
Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Guingamp
Dunkerque
GoalsAssists
- E. Prutsev31
Guingamp
GoalsAssists
- B. Bokangu40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dunkerque carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.33 for Guingamp. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Dunkerque and 1.22 for Guingamp. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunkerque rate 0.72 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guingamp rate 0.59 and 1.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dunkerque a 0.4% chance of the title and Guingamp 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunkerque the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Dunkerque against 1.22 for Guingamp. Dunkerque's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.68 for Guingamp.
How the model reaches 47% for Dunkerque to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dunkerque to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Dunkerque's ratings take away 21 points and Guingamp's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Dunkerque's ratings20%−21
- Guingamp's ratings47%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dunkerque at home · Guingamp away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
DunkerqueGuingamp
Dunkerque are 10th after 9 Ligue 2 matches (between 1st and 12th so far); Guingamp are 13th after 9 (between 6th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Dunkerque 9, Guingamp 9.
Dunkerque score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Guingamp have let in 5 there.
Guingamp score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Dunkerque have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dunkerque
- at Sochaux20 Nov · Ligue 2win 34%
- vs RED Star FC 934 Dec · Ligue 2win 38%
- at Laval11 Dec · Ligue 2win 40%
Guingamp
- vs Rodez20 Nov · Ligue 2win 38%
- at Grenoble4 Dec · Ligue 2win 32%
- vs Dijon11 Dec · Ligue 2win 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.