Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Bucheon FC 1995 0-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Bucheon FC 1995, 30% draw, 32% Gimcheon Sangmu FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bucheon FC 1995 at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Line-ups
- 1H. KimG
- 6Jeong Ho-JinD
- 3Patrick WilliamD
- 20Hong Sung-WookD
- 7Thiaguinho SantosM
- 8Yoon Bit-GaramM
- 16Kim Sang-JunM
- 26An Tae-HyunM
- 10Rodrigo BassaniF
- 11GalegoF
- 71Kim Seung-BinF
- 31Lee Sang-hyeonG
- 2Kim Jong-MinD
- 13Kim Min-JunM
- 14Kim Jong-WooM
- 18Lee Eui-HyeongF
- 29Baek Dong-GyuD
- 4S. Ye-Geon
- 83Jo Seong-JunF
- 99Gustavo NescauF
- 41M. ParkG
- 11Kim Tae-HwanD
- 4Kim Hyun-WooD
- 26Lee Jung-TaekD
- 3Park Cheol-WooD
- 7Go Jae-HyeonM
- 55T. ParkM
- 6Lee Soo-BinM
- 48Hong Yun-SangM
- 47Lee Sang-HeonF
- 57Jung Jae-MinF
- 5Kim Min-KyuD
- 8Kim Yi-SeokM
- 9G. LeeF
- 14Park Se-JinM
- 42Hong Si-HooD
- 44Park Min-SeoD
- 51Ahn Jun-SuG
- 54Yoon Jae-SeokD
- 56K. LeeM
Form going into Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1
- D2-2Jeju United FC12 September 2026
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1
- D2-2Gangwon FC13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 32 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 33 | 5 | 19 | 9 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 11 July 2026Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–1 Bucheon FC 1995K League 1
- 25 April 2026Bucheon FC 1995 0–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 14 May 2025Bucheon FC 1995 3–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FCFA Cup
- 7 October 2023Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3–1 Bucheon FC 1995K League 2
- 1 July 2023Bucheon FC 1995 0–3 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 2
- 15 April 2023Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4–1 Bucheon FC 1995K League 2
Leading scorers: Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Bucheon FC 1995
GoalsAssists
- Jefferson Galego41
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
GoalsAssists
- Go Jae-Hyeon53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 2–0 at Bucheon FC 1995. The model had leaned towards a win for Bucheon FC 1995 at 38% and given a win for Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Go Jae-hyun 77' for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, Park Se-jin 86' for Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
How the call on Bucheon FC 1995 v Gimcheon Sangmu FC has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 42% / 32% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is Gimcheon Sangmu FC's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Bucheon FC 1995 win38%▼ −4
- Draw30%▼ −2
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC win32%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.