Modena vs Empoli Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Modena 2-1 Empoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Modena, 30% draw, 30% Empoli — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Modena at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Modena vs Empoli
Line-ups
- 1L. ChichizolaG
- 77D. TonoliD
- 6S. NadorD
- 20B. NielingD
- 27Paulo AzziM
- 42A. BiancoM
- 16G. BrugmanM
- 10G. CasoM
- 7F. ZampanoM
- 72G. OlzerF
- 70G. AmbrosinoF
- 8S. SantoroM
- 9D. MontevagoF
- 26A. ImputatoF
- 23F. FolinoD
- 22L. ConsiglioG
- 17K. BozhanajM
- 32W. AcquahM
- 33StênioF
- 34Diego RoncoD
- 12J. SeghettiG
- 8L. MagninoD
- 6S. RomagnoliD
- 33C. CauzD
- 91N. CorradoM
- 98K. ZedadkaM
- 21Gerard YepesM
- 39E. BiondiniM
- 15J. CeesayM
- 10E. SaporitiF
- 11S. ShpendiF
- 57L. BelardinelliM
- 36D. BembnistaD
- 40R. BerizziD
- 5D. Degli InnocentiM
- 44L. DeliM
- 20F. DistefanoF
- 13E. FilippisG
- 38M. HuqiM
- 28G. IndragoliD
Form going into Modena vs Empoli
Modena
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Sudtirol12 September 2026
- L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Benevento22 August 2026
Empoli
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Arezzo11 September 2026
- W1-0away to Carrarese5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026
- W1-0Cremonese22 August 2026
What these results say
- Modena scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Modena conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Empoli scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Empoli had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Modena | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 18 | Empoli | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Modena vs Empoli
- 31 January 2026Empoli 0–0 ModenaSerie B
- 24 October 2025Modena 2–1 EmpoliSerie B
Leading scorers: Modena and Empoli
Modena
GoalsAssists
- A. Belotti60
- G. Ambrosino32
- G. Caso32
Empoli
GoalsAssists
- E. Saporiti30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Modena beat Empoli 2–1. The model had made a win for Modena its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Gerard Yepes 27' for Empoli, Andrea Belotti 61' for Modena, Giuseppe Ambrosino 70' for Modena.