Hellas Verona
vs
Vicenza Virtus
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Hellas Verona 2–0 Vicenza Virtus
The model makes it 52% Hellas Verona, 26% draw, 22% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Hellas Verona 2.11, Vicenza Virtus 0.95.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Hellas Verona wins, grey are draws, red are Vicenza Virtus wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hellas Verona at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus
Hellas Verona
- L1-3away to Benevento11 September 2026
- W5-0Arezzo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Padova29 August 2026
- L1-2Ascoli23 August 2026
Vicenza Virtus
- D1-1Juve Stabia12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Virtus Entella6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Avellino29 August 2026
- W3-2Catanzaro21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hellas Verona | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 4 |
| 12 | Vicenza Virtus | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus
- 1 May 2017Hellas Verona 3–2 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 10 December 2016Vicenza Virtus 1–0 Hellas VeronaSerie B
Leading scorers: Hellas Verona and Vicenza Virtus
Hellas Verona
- S. Mulattieri2 goals1 assists
- S. Cerbone2 goals
- A. Sarr2 goals
Vicenza Virtus
- T. Corazza1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hellas Verona carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.52 for Vicenza Virtus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Hellas Verona and 0.95 for Vicenza Virtus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hellas Verona rate 0.87 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vicenza Virtus rate 0.76 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vicenza Virtus, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hellas Verona the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Hellas Verona against 0.95 for Vicenza Virtus. Hellas Verona's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.49 for Vicenza Virtus.