Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Hellas Verona 2-1 Vicenza Virtus.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Hellas Verona, 26% draw, 22% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hellas Verona at 52% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus
Line-ups
- 1N. LealiG
- 4G. ZappaD
- 48S. KoračD
- 27P. DawidowiczD
- 71D. De BattistiD
- 17A. Le BorgneM
- 44E. IannoniM
- 23N. LellaM
- 10T. SuslovM
- 9A. SarrM
- 19S. MulattieriF
- 35S. CerboneF
- 37N. CalabreseD
- 70F. ChamD
- 5A. EdmundssonD
- 21A. HarrouiM
- 20G. KastanosM
- 25D. MosqueraF
- 34S. PerilliG
- 14D. LivramentoF
- 16R. GagnoG
- 14G. CuomoD
- 23N. BrighentiD
- 5R. MarchizzaD
- 28L. CaferriM
- 29L. ZontaM
- 8A. BellemoM
- 24Filippo AlessioM
- 32F. CostaM
- 7N. RautiF
- 33S. MerkajF
- 4M. CarraroM
- 21T. CorazzaD
- 6M. LeverbeD
- 11G. MonciniF
- 9C. MorraF
- 66A. PapettiD
- 99A. PietrelliM
- 27T. SandonD
- 44R. TalaricoM
Form going into Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus
Hellas Verona
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Benevento11 September 2026
- W5-0Arezzo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Padova29 August 2026
- L1-2Ascoli23 August 2026
Vicenza Virtus
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Juve Stabia12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Virtus Entella6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Avellino29 August 2026
- W3-2Catanzaro21 August 2026
What these results say
- Hellas Verona scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hellas Verona failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hellas Verona conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 12 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hellas Verona vs Vicenza Virtus
- 1 May 2017Hellas Verona 3–2 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 10 December 2016Vicenza Virtus 1–0 Hellas VeronaSerie B
Leading scorers: Hellas Verona and Vicenza Virtus
Hellas Verona
GoalsAssists
- D. Mosquera60
Vicenza Virtus
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hellas Verona beat Vicenza Virtus 2–1. The model had made a win for Hellas Verona its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Nicola Rauti 58' for Vicenza Virtus, Daniel Mosquera 74' for Hellas Verona, Daniel Mosquera 76' for Hellas Verona.
How the call on Hellas Verona v Vicenza Virtus has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 54% / 26% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Hellas Verona's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Hellas Verona win52%▼ −2
- Draw26%=
- Vicenza Virtus win22%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.