Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Barracas Central 0-1 Independiente Rivadavia.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Barracas Central, 29% draw, 34% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barracas Central at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30M. MinoG
- 13R. BarriosD
- 15Y. RakD
- 31N. DemartiniD
- 17E. PereyraD
- 5D. MilocM
- 28R. BogarinM
- 35E. RolonM
- 10I. TapiaM
- 11N. BriascoF
- 20J. CandiaF
- 43L. FernandezG
- 37G. CampiD
- 4D. MartinezD
- 2N. CapraroD
- 33G. MaroniM
- 19C. ArceM
- 24E. TabordaF
- 36T. LavezziF
- 7J. BarbieriF
- 30N. BolcatoG
- 2L. CostaD
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 42S. StuderD
- 25J. I. Florentin BobadillaM
- 14L. GomezM
- 10M. FernandezM
- 77L. SequeiraM
- 3J. M. ElordiM
- 43F. SartoriF
- 17M. SalasF
- 21E. F. Gomez RigaG
- 28A. VigoD
- 13A. OsellaD
- 8L. BuccaM
- 34S. MoreyraM
- 27D. CregoM
- 11G. RiosM
- 5T. BottariM
- 32K. A. VazquezM
Form going into Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
Barracas Central
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Banfield14 September 2026
- D0-0Argentinos Juniors7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tigre1 September 2026
- L1-2Platense23 August 2026
- L0-1Rosario Central16 August 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
All competitions we cover
- W4-3Aldosivi12 September 2026
- L1-3away to River Plate6 September 2026
- W3-1Racing Club31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Independiente22 August 2026
- L0-2away to Belgrano Cordoba15 August 2026
What these results say
- Barracas Central did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Barracas Central had two goals or fewer.
- Independiente Rivadavia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Barracas Central | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 | Independiente Rivadavia | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia
- 12 March 2026Independiente Rivadavia 1–2 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 July 2025Barracas Central 0–3 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 January 2025Independiente Rivadavia 0–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 October 2024Barracas Central 1–1 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 1 March 2024Independiente Rivadavia 1–3 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
The full Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia record →
Leading scorers: Barracas Central and Independiente Rivadavia
Barracas Central
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
- J. Florentín71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente Rivadavia won 1–0 at Barracas Central. The model had leaned towards a win for Barracas Central at 37% and given a win for Independiente Rivadavia 34%. The goal: J. I. Florentin Bobadilla 12' for Independiente Rivadavia. On expected goals it finished 0.19–1.09.
How the call on Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia has moved
First published on 7 Sep at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Barracas Central's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Barracas Central win37%▼ −6
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Independiente Rivadavia win34%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.