Aldosivi
vs
Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Aldosivi 2–1 Atletico Tucuman
The model makes it 38% Aldosivi, 29% draw, 33% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Aldosivi 1.49, Atletico Tucuman 1.32.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Aldosivi wins, grey are draws, red are Atletico Tucuman wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aldosivi at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman
Aldosivi
- L3-4away to Independiente Rivadavia12 September 2026
- W3-1Banfield5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Argentinos Juniors30 August 2026
- L1-3Union Santa Fe21 August 2026
- D0-0Tigre15 August 2026
Atletico Tucuman
- L1-2River Plate12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Racing Club7 September 2026
- D0-0Belgrano Cordoba30 August 2026
- D0-0Instituto Cordoba22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman
- 12 March 2026Atletico Tucuman 1–1 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 July 2022Aldosivi 0–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 August 2021Atletico Tucuman 2–2 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 August 2019Aldosivi 3–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 March 2019Atletico Tucuman 1–0 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Aldosivi and Atletico Tucuman
Aldosivi
No leading scorers listed yet.
Atletico Tucuman
- L. Díaz7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aldosivi carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.62 for Atletico Tucuman. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Aldosivi and 1.32 for Atletico Tucuman. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aldosivi rate 0.81 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Tucuman rate 0.70 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aldosivi the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Aldosivi against 1.32 for Atletico Tucuman. Aldosivi's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.13 for Atletico Tucuman.