21 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Mar del Plata
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Aldosivi 1-0 Atletico Tucuman.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Aldosivi, 29% draw, 33% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Aldosivi at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aldosivi96%Draw4%Atletico Tucuman0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁N. Breitenbruchout: L. Sigali
25'
🔁E. Lopezout: S. Moya
45'
🔁N. Corderoout: A. Palavecino
46'
⚽T. Fernandezassist: S. Moya
56'
59'
🔁R. Tesuriout: R. Ruiz
60'
🔁N. Lamendolaout: A. Canelo
🔁L. Castroout: F. Perruzzi
73'
🔁T. Fernandezout: F. Anso
73'
75'
🔁I. Galvanout: J. Infante
75'
🔁J. Fernandezout: R. Granillo
•Leonardo Sigali
84'
Francisco Perruzzi
90+3'

Match stats — Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman

57%Possession43%
13Shots13
3On target1
3Corners6
1.04xG0.67

Goals against chances

Aldosivi1 from 1.04 xGabout what the chances were worth
Atletico Tucuman0 from 0.67 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aldosivi 4-3-1-2
  • 42L. AcostaG
  • 14E. LopezD
  • 25N. BreitenbruchD
  • 32J. PomboD
  • 13B. CufreD
  • 8M. GarciaM
  • 5N. LinaresM
  • 19L. CastroM
  • 10N. GaitanM
  • 27T. FernandezF
  • 9N. CorderoF
Substitutes
  • 23I. ChiccoG
  • 2L. SigaliD
  • 28S. MoyaD
  • 33N. ZalazarD
  • 17F. LaurelliD
  • 4R. GonzalezD
  • 15F. PerruzziM
  • 16B. DadinF
  • 7N. GuzmanF
Coach: Javier Sanguinetti
Atletico Tucuman 4-1-4-1
  • 1L. IngolottiG
  • 24L. Di PlacidoD
  • 6G. FerrariD
  • 36L. VallejoD
  • 21I. GalvanD
  • 19L. VegaM
  • 11R. TesuriM
  • 5J. FernandezM
  • 31L. GodoyM
  • 23N. LamendolaM
  • 9L. DiazF
Substitutes
  • 25T. DursoG
  • 17J. RodriguezD
  • 3M. VillaD
  • 32J. InfanteD
  • 27R. GranilloF
  • 8E. HamM
  • 28G. CompagnucciD
  • 34M. Carrizo
  • 14A. CaneloF
Coach: Julio Falcioni

Form going into Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman

Aldosivi

All competitions we cover

  • L3-4away to Independiente Rivadavia12 September 2026
  • W3-1Banfield5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Argentinos Juniors30 August 2026
  • L1-3Union Santa Fe21 August 2026
  • D0-0Tigre15 August 2026

Atletico Tucuman

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2River Plate12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Racing Club7 September 2026
  • D0-0Belgrano Cordoba30 August 2026
  • D0-0Instituto Cordoba22 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto17 August 2026

What these results say

  • Aldosivi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aldosivi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aldosivi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Aldosivi143291522-711
10Atletico Tucuman144551313017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman

  • 12 March 2026Atletico Tucuman 1–1 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 16 July 2022Aldosivi 0–1 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 August 2021Atletico Tucuman 2–2 AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 26 August 2019Aldosivi 3–0 Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Aldosivi vs Atletico Tucuman record →

The result against the call

Aldosivi beat Atletico Tucuman 1–0. The model had made a win for Aldosivi its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: T. Fernandez 56' for Aldosivi. On expected goals it finished 1.04–0.67.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.