Arezzo vs Sudtirol Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Arezzo 1-4 Sudtirol.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Arezzo, 29% draw, 31% Sudtirol — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arezzo at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arezzo vs Sudtirol
Line-ups
- 14A. NunzianteG
- 4M. CoppolaroD
- 13M. GilliD
- 5J. IllanesD
- 37S. RighettiD
- 16Mattia SalaM
- 23M. VivianiM
- 17A. IoniţăM
- 10E. PattarelloF
- 71P. CianciF
- 99M. OlivieriF
- 32A. CagnanoD
- 9A. CerriF
- 24L. ChiericoM
- 7Giuseppe Kevin LeoneM
- 33D. ManciniD
- 11L. MancusoF
- 47Aleandro ManesM
- 8S. MawuliM
- 2M. MenaD
- 22A. PlizzariG
- 4R. StivanelloD
- 55A. GiorginiD
- 27G. StabileD
- 79S. MolinaM
- 10Fabio RispoliM
- 5S. TronchinM
- 20B. BjarkasonM
- 11Vasco LopesM
- 17L. AnghelèM
- 90A. OkoroF
- 1Lukas PlonerG
- 46D. BrikM
- 9R. BurneteF
- 23F. DaviD
- 24S. DavìD
- 25K. MixturF
- 19M. PelliniD
- 80Elias SchrootM
- 21F. TaitM
Form going into Arezzo vs Sudtirol
Arezzo
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Empoli11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
- L2-3Palermo30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Avellino22 August 2026
Sudtirol
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Modena12 September 2026
- W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
- W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026
What these results say
- Arezzo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arezzo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Arezzo had three goals or more.
- Sudtirol went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Sudtirol scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Sudtirol had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Arezzo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 10 |
| 8 | Sudtirol | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arezzo vs Sudtirol
- 28 March 2021Sudtirol 1–0 ArezzoSerie C - Girone B
- 6 December 2020Arezzo 0–4 SudtirolSerie C - Girone B
The result against the call
Sudtirol won 4–1 at Arezzo. The model had leaned towards a win for Arezzo at 40% and given a win for Sudtirol 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Fabio Rispoli 45+1' for Sudtirol, Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes 54' for Sudtirol, Kenny Meddy Mixtur 68' for Sudtirol, Andrea Giorgini 79' for Sudtirol, Leonardo Mancuso 81' for Arezzo.