Mantova vs Pisa Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Mantova 2-2 Pisa.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Mantova, 29% draw, 38% Pisa — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pisa at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mantova vs Pisa
Line-ups
- 22F. BardiG
- 5B. TomaševićD
- 29S. CellaD
- 27A. CastelliniD
- 41Jonathan SilvaM
- 25L. IgnacchitiM
- 80R. KoudaM
- 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
- 8R. IlieM
- 19F. RuoccoM
- 9E. GliozziF
- 18S. KeitaM
- 6J. MboyoM
- 30D. BragantiniF
- 75E. KošpoD
- 20F. PaolettiM
- 7M. SpinaccèF
- 99V. VlahovićF
- 10D. WieserM
- 1L. GemelloG
- 98A. ConfenteG
- 13A. PrimassoD
- 4A. CaraccioloD
- 5S. CanestrelliD
- 72S. ZanonM
- 55G. LeoneM
- 29O. CorreiaM
- 3S. AngoriM
- 32S. MoreoM
- 10M. TramoniM
- 8F. PittarelloF
- 33A. CalabresiD
- 26F. CoppolaD
- 44D. DenoonD
- 11I. FerrahM
- 22L. LoriaG
- 14F. LoyolaD
- 37A. PetagnaF
- 36G. PiccininiM
- 17E. RaoF
Form going into Mantova vs Pisa
Mantova
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Sampdoria13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena6 September 2026
- W3-1Empoli30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Carrarese22 August 2026
Pisa
All competitions we cover
- L1-4Virtus Entella11 September 2026
- W3-0away to Juve Stabia6 September 2026
- W2-1Catanzaro30 August 2026
- L0-1Padova23 August 2026
What these results say
- Mantova went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Mantova scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Mantova won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pisa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pisa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Pisa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mantova | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | Pisa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mantova vs Pisa
- 16 March 2025Pisa 3–1 MantovaSerie B
- 7 December 2024Mantova 2–3 PisaSerie B
Leading scorers: Mantova and Pisa
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
Pisa
GoalsAssists
- F. Pittarello41
- T. Marras31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mantova and Pisa drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Pisa at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ettore Gliozzi 8' for Mantova, Filippo Pittarello 38' for Pisa, Stefano Moreo 57' for Pisa, Vanja Vlahovic 90+3' for Mantova. Sent off: Francesco Modesto (Mantova) 71'.