Kawkab Marrakech
vs
Ittihad Tanger
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Kawkab Marrakech 1–0 Ittihad Tanger
The model makes it 34% Kawkab Marrakech, 33% draw, 33% Ittihad Tanger — fair odds of 2.94, 3.03 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kawkab Marrakech 1.01, Ittihad Tanger 0.98.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Kawkab Marrakech and Ittihad Tanger are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Kawkab Marrakech are 6th on 3 points from 2 games; Ittihad Tanger are 3rd on 4 points from 2 games — Botola Pro.
- Last 6 meetings: Ittihad Tanger 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 June 2026, ended Kawkab Marrakech 0–2 Ittihad Tanger.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kawkab Marrakech vs Ittihad Tanger
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kawkab Marrakech at 34% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kawkab Marrakech vs Ittihad Tanger
Kawkab Marrakech
- W1-0away to CODM Meknès3 October 2026
- L2-3Hassania Agadir27 September 2026
Ittihad Tanger
- D1-1Moghreb Tetouan2 October 2026
- W3-1away to Amal Tiznit24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kawkab Marrakech | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ittihad Tanger | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kawkab Marrakech vs Ittihad Tanger
- 17 June 2026Kawkab Marrakech 0–2 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 1 February 2026Ittihad Tanger 0–0 Kawkab MarrakechBotola Pro
- 5 May 2019Kawkab Marrakech 3–1 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
- 19 December 2018Ittihad Tanger 1–1 Kawkab MarrakechBotola Pro
- 10 March 2018Ittihad Tanger 1–0 Kawkab MarrakechBotola Pro
- 20 October 2017Kawkab Marrakech 2–2 Ittihad TangerBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kawkab Marrakech carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.36 for Ittihad Tanger. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Kawkab Marrakech and 0.98 for Ittihad Tanger. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kawkab Marrakech rate 0.52 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ittihad Tanger rate 0.58 and 1.56.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ittihad Tanger, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kawkab Marrakech the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Kawkab Marrakech against 0.98 for Ittihad Tanger. Kawkab Marrakech's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.56 for Ittihad Tanger.
Next match, by difficulty
Kawkab Marrakech
Ittihad Tanger
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.